Friday, January 3, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, January 03, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                                   January 03, 2014
After remaining buoyant until late afternoon trade, the Markets suddenly saw a wave of basket selling, primarily marking the activities of FII amid low volumes and it caused the Markets to end the day with significant losses from its intraday highs. The Markets opened on a positive note remained buoyant until afternoon trade while forming the intraday high of 6358.30. The Markets resisted around the 6345 levels on expected lines but in the last hour and half of trade, the Markets saw a huge wave of basket selling by few FIIs. The low volumes aided the fall and the Markets lost over 140-odd points from its day’s high. It went on to give the day’s low of 6211 and finally ended the day at 6221.15 posting a net loss of 80.50 points or 1.28% while forming a higher top and sharply lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Today, we would see some weakness persisting in the Markets in the initial trade. The levels of 50-DMA would now come again in the picture. Expect the Markets to open on a lower note and flirt with its 50-DMA. In case of Markets opening below the 50-DMA levels, it would be extremely critical for the Markets to trade above the 50-DMA levels and maintain that as support at Close in order to avoid any structural weakness. The intraday trajectory would be critically important.

The levels of 6260 and 6310 are immediate resistance on the Charts. The supports exist at 6190 and 6155 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 49.4233 and it still continues to remain neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergences or failure swing. The Daily MACD has reported a negative crossover after yesterday’s decline and it now trades below its signal line. 

On the derivative front, NIFTY January futures have shed over 4.95 lakh shares or 2.50% Open Interest. This shows that there has been offloading of positions but if we try and look at the brighter side, then the reduction in OI interest is not as massive as the fall that it accompanied with. This may lead us to believe that there are equal number of shorts that have been created which has tried to offset the reduction in OI to some extent.

All and all, the Markets may open around its 50-DMA or bit lower than that but it would be critically important for the Markets to maintain the levels of 50-DMA as support at Close. The intraday trajectory would be extremely important. Given shorts in the Markets, we strongly advise you to refrain from shorts. However, fresh positions too should be avoided and taken extremely selectively to maintain liquidity. Overall, cautious outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331



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