MARKET REPORT November
13, 2013
What it seemed to be a consolidating session and when it was
seen as if the Markets are attempting to find a bottom, it continued to correct
again in the second half of the session and ended the day with losses in the
sixth day in a row. The Markets opened on a positive note and gave its intraday
high of 6108.70 in the very early minutes of the trade. It traded in a capped
range in the morning trade but slowly drifted in the red. However, the Markets
managed to trade flat around its previous close until mid afternoon session.
Soon after that, in the last two hours of the trade, the Markets saw some fresh
pressure coming in. It started to drift and went on to give the day’s low of
6011.75, coming off over 95-odd points from its day’s high. It ended the day at
6018.75, posting a net loss of 60.75 points or 1% while continuing to form a
lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
Today would be very critical session for the Markets. The
Markets have ended in the negative for six consecutive trading sessions. Today
as well, the Markets are expected to open on a negative note but today’s
opening levels would see the Markets open near its 50-DMA. There are very high
chances that post opening lows, we see the Markets bottoming out and improving
as the session progresses.
For today, the levels of 6065 and 6105 are immediate resistance
levels for the Markets. The supports come in at 5975 level which is its 50-DMA
and then at 5955 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is
42.4101 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish.
However, it does not show any bullish or bearish divergences. The Daily MACD
continues to trade below its signal line.
On the derivative front, NIFTY November futures have shed
very nominal 32,550 shares or 0.17% in Open Interest. This is a silver lining
for the Markets because at these figures we can surely say that the OI has
remained virtually unchanged as against heavy shedding that we saw in previous
sessions.
Given the pattern analysis, it is pretty sure that the
Markets can see a lower opening but that levels would near its 50-DMA.There are
bright chances, as mentioned before, that the Markets attempts to find support around
these levels and improves as we go ahead in the session. The F&O data also
supports this as it does not show any heavy shedding of open interest as well.
All and all, even with negative opening, we see a fair
chances that the Markets attempts to find bottom today around the opening
levels. It is advised that creating shorts should be strictly avoided as there
is still no any structural breach on the charts. Any lower levels, so long as
the 50-DMA and its filters are maintained, should be used to make selective
purchases. However, purchases should be very less and selective and liquidity
should be maintained. Overall, positive outlook is advised for today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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