Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, August 14, 2013

MARKET REPORT                                                                                         August 14, 2013 

Yesterday’s session remained that of a pleasant recovery session for the Markets as the Markets opened on a negative note but then went on to add gains one way and ended the day on a fairly stronger note. The Markets opened on a negative note and formed its intraday low of 5578.90 in the very early minutes of the trade. The Markets formed a upward rising channel thereafter and remained in rising trajectory for the rest of the session as it kept gradually making new highs. This continued for the entire session as the Markets rose over 125-odd points from its opening lows. The Markets went on to give its intraday high of 5704.75 and maintained those levels till the end. It finally ended the day at 5699.30, posting a robust gain of 86.90 points or 1.55% while continuing to make a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Today, after posting there days of up move, the Markets are expected to take little breather and open on a mildly negative to flat note and look for directions. There is nothing on Charts to indicate a downward move and the Markets have some room more to move up and continue with its recovery. However we have a truncated week with tomorrow being a holiday and we might see some minor profit taking happening.

For today, the levels of 5730 and 5765 are immediate resistance on the Charts. The supports come in much lower at 5650 an 5635 levels.

The lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 44.7630 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any kind of failure swings. The Daily MACD trades below its signal line and is bearish but is attempting to move towards a positive crossover in coming days if the Markets maintain these levels. 

On the derivative front, the NIFTY August futures show shedding of over 8.48 lakh shares or 5.80% of Open Interest. This remains a negative reading as it signifies that the rise has been due to massive short covering from lower levels and not a fresh buying. However, on the other end, the stock futures show total addition of over 1 Crores shares in Open Interest.

Given the above reading, it clearly shows that the reading of the technical indicators and the F&O data is not in sync and it deviates from each other while keeping the bias on the continuation of up move. With the lead indicators in place, the chances of the Markets resuming its downward journey is less likely. On the other hand, it would be important to see that the up moves that are occurring due to short covering should get replaced with fresh buying. 

All and all, given the deviation in the reading of technical indicators and the F&O data, there are chances that the Markets remains and trades in a capped range and consolidates a bit before it continues with its up move. There are no indications of the Markets resuming its downward move and therefore, shorts should strictly be avoided. Given the truncated week, capped movement or minor profit taking can be expected, however, the overall bias remains bullish and on upside. Positive caution is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331


No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.