Thursday, August 22, 2013

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, August 22, 2013

MARKET REPORT                                                                                      August 22, 2013
Yesterday’s session turned out to be a thoroughly disappointing one as the Markets pared all of its strong opening gains to end the day with losses while adding massive open interest in the derivative segments and entering the “oversold” levels. The Markets saw a very strong and gap up opening of over 100-odd points while it gave its day’s high of 5504.10 in the early minutes of the trade. The way it was feared and analysed by us, the Markets found it difficult to sustain those gains as it pared all of its gains by afternoon trade to trade flat. It went further deep into the red as the Rupee made its fresh lifetime lows against the US Dollar. It went on to give its day’s low of 5268.45, coming off nearly 135-odd points from its opening highs. It saw a mild recovery towards the end but still ended the day at 5302.55, posting a net loss of 98.90 points or 1.83% while forming a higher top but lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

After yesterday’s decline, the Markets have entered the “oversold” territory on the Daily Charts while once again adding “massive” open interest across the board in NIFTY as well as select stocks in the derivative segment. The analysis for today again remains more or less on similar lines. The Markets have been blatantly flouting all technical indicators. It is likely to do it again today as well. We can expect a weak opening today again, but at the same time, the opening can be around yesterday’s low levels and see some chances of recovery “purely on technical grounds”.

Today, the levels of immediate resistance for the Markets are 5504 levels. The supports come in at 5460 and 5435 levels.

The lead indicators are grossly oversold. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 28.2431 and it does not show any failure swings. The NIFTY has made a fresh 14-week low but RSI has not and this is a clear “Bullish Divergence”. The Daily MACD trades below its signal line and moving fast towards being “oversold”.

On the Candles, An Engulfing Bearish Pattern has occurred. If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with NIFTY), it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal.  The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle's real body.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY August futures have added over 34.44 lakh or massive 16.57% in Open Interest. This indicates that there has been a massive addition of fresh shorts in the Markets again.

Overall, there is very little that an analyst can add here on technical grounds. The Markets are “oversold”, have added “massive” open interest and thereby shorts over last couple of sessions. Almost over 90% of the Index components trade “deeply oversold”. Also, these current valuation discount all fears of the Fed tapering, account deficit, and other such external fears. The Markets would continue to see such pressure being exerted and this cannot be determined by any technical reading.

HOWEVER, speaking on technical grounds, we can certainly point out that there are very high chances that the Markets see a very sharp and equally nasty pullback either later today or in coming days. The Markets sits in oversold territory and in such times,  a pullback remains imminent even while being in a continuing downtrend. All we can advice retain traders / investors is to refrain from making shorts. Fresh purchases too should be avoided and liquidity should be preserved to protect positions until directional bias and external pressure gets exhausted and the Markets comes within the technical ambit. Overall cautious outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331



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