MARKET REPORT July
22, 2013
The Markets on Friday headed nowhere as it moved in either
directions and traded in a capped range to finally end the day with very modest
losses. The Markets opened on a modestly positive note and traded with capped
gains in the morning session of the trade. The Markets pared those little gains
in the afternoon and dipped into the red. The second half of the trade once
again saw the Markets recover from those lower levels and it went back into the
positive, this time to record the day’s high of 6066.85. This too was not
sustained by the Markets as it came off from those levels as well. It slipped
modestly into the red this time to give the day’s low of 6020.25. A very modest
recovery was seen at the Close and the Markets finally ended the day at 6029.20,
posting a very nominal loss of 8.85 points or 0.15%.
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
For today, expect the Markets to open on a flat note and
look for directions. The lead indicators of the Markets remain neutral to
mildly bullish. For today intraday trajectory that the Markets forms after
opening would be crucial to decide the trend for the day. With analysis of the
technical indicators on Daily and Weekly Charts, the trend would likely to
remain overall bullish in the immediate short term.
For today, the levels of 6070 and 6090 shall pose as
immediate resistance on the Daily Charts. The supports come in at 5980 an 5965
on the down side.
The lead indicators on the Daily and Weekly Charts are
neutral to bullish. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is
59.6983 and it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings and
is therefore neutral. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades
above its signal line.
On the Weekly Charts, the RSI remains neutral. The Weekly
MACD reported a positive crossover and it now trades above its signal line and
is therefore Bullish.
On the derivative front, the NIFTY July futures have added in net Open Interest
which is a positive sign. The NIFTY PCR stands at 1.31 as against 1.33.
Overall, this being a the expiry week now the Markets will
see rollovers begin and for the most part of the week is likely to remain
dominated with rollover centric activities. However, given the combined reading
of the Daily and the Weekly Charts, the even if this rollovers keep the Markets
in a range bound trade or little
volatile, the overall trend is likely to remain intact with a upward
bias.
All and all, with the flat opening expected, the intraday trajectory
remains crucial. Even with the Markets getting little weaker, it is not likely
to breach any important supports. Volatility may remain and we will continue to
see selective out performance. Further to this, with the lead indicators on
both the Daily and the Weekly Charts remaining intact, even if the Markets consolidate
a bit, it would be with an upward bias. While continuing to avoid shorts, fresh
purchases may be made and at the same time, profits too should be vigilantly
protected. Overall, cautious optimism is advised for today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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