MARKET REPORT
June 10, 2013
What seemed to be a decent recovery after testing the levels
of 100 and 50 DMA, the Markets fizzled out in the second half of the session to
end the day with losses again. The Markets opened on a negative note but soon
recovery from its opening lows to trade in the positive territory in the
morning trade. In the late morning trade, the Markets even perked up further as
it went on to give the day’s high of 5972.70. However, hopes turned sour as the
Markets did not sustain this recovery. It became weak in the second half of the
session. The second half of the session saw some selling pressure coming in
which intensified further towards the end. The Markets came off from its highs
and traded in capped range near its previous close. It went negative in the
last hour of the trade and went on to give the day’s low of 5871.30, coming off
nearly 101-odd points from its day’s high. It finally ended the day at 5881,
posting a net loss of 40.40 points or 0.68% while forming a higher top and
similar bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
MARKET TREND
FOR TODAY
Technically speaking, the Markets have come off its intraday
highs on Friday and ended at the day’s lows. Going by this, they would, under
normal conditions, open lower and continue with the downtrend. However, the
global Markets are trading higher and this is likely to cause a positive and
little stronger opening in our Markets. However, the key would be to see the
intraday trajectory the Markets forms after opening. It would be critical for
the Markets to sustain opening strength
in order to capitalize on the positive opening.
The Markets have made a temporary top of 5972. For today,
the levels of 5925 and 5960 shall act as resistance and the levels of 5855 and
5810 are likely to act as resistance. However, if the Markets sustains its
positive opening, the levels of 100 and 50-DMA, i.e. 5887 and 5894 shall
continue to act as support at the Close levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is
40.8089 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish.
However it does not show any bearish or bullish divergence. The Daily MACD is
bearish as it continues to trade below its signal line. On the Weekly Charts,
RSI is 51.6238 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergences
or failure swings. The Weekly MACD remains bullish as it trades above the
signal line but is moving towards negative crossover.
On the derivative front, NIFTY has shed a nominal 1.22 lakh
shares or 0.98% in Open Interest. The interpretation of this data would be that
no shorts were created while the NIFTY came off over 100-odd points. This
certainly remains a negative as the NIFTY has been shedding OI in previous
sessions on its way down indicating unwinding / offloading and before any
sustainable up move, it will have to add to fresh longs.
Having said this, it is important to note that there are no
triggers, going through technical indicators and F&O data as well
indicating the Markets have an upside. Under these circumstances, there are
chances that the Markets see positive and strong opening but is equally likely
to fizzle out in the later part of the session. Key would be to capitalize on
the opening gains and sustain them and therefore intraday trajectory would be
important.
All and all, the Markets, as we mentioned in the previous
edition of Daily Market Trend Guide, is still not completely out of the woods.
While there has been no breaching of the DMAs significantly, shorts must be
avoided. In the same breadth, since the Markets have made an temporary top at
5972 levels, any upside should be utilized to book and protect profits while
making purchases on a very selective note.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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