MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
May 29, 2013
The Markets continued to see heavy rollovers and due to it
remained very volatile as it moved in both of the directions during the day
finally ended the session with modest gains. The Markets opened on a positive
note and after trading into positive for a brief time, slipped into the red.
The Markets slipped into the red after resisting to its pattern resistance
levels and went on to give the day’s low of 6055.40 in the late morning trade.
However, it reversed its trend while slowly recovering from its lows, traded
again into the positive territory. The Markets saw a sudden spurt as it
furthered its gains and gave its intraday high of 6127.85. The Markets then
traded in a capped range until the end of the session. It came off a bit from
those levels and finally ended the day at 6111.25, posting a modest gain of
28.10 points or 0.46% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily
High Low Charts.
Today’s analysis would remain on similar lines like that of
yesterday. We enter the penultimate day of expiry of current derivative series
and the session remain highly dominated with rollover centric activities. With flat
to moderately negative opening expected, the opening levels would play a
crucial role in deciding the trend for the day and the behaviour of the Markets
vis-à-vis the levels of 6100 would be important. The Markets have resisted to
this level yesterday before closing a notch above this.
For today, the levels of 6130 and 6150 shall act as
immediate resistance levels. The supports come in much lower at 6075 and 6020
levels.
The lead indicators point towards neutral behaviour of the
Markets with mild bias on the downside. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the
Daily Chart is 58.4475 and it does not show any bullish or bearish divergence
or any kind of failure swing and is therefore neutral. The Daily MACD is bearish
as it trades below its signal line.
On the derivative front, the NIFTY futures have reported
over 31% in rollovers. The total open interest has remained more or less
constant signifying no major shorts were
created yesterday.
Overall, if we try to corroborate the behaviour of INR
against USD, the USD has strengthened even with the Markets not showing any
weakness in last two days. This further signifies the trading sessions were
more dominated with rollover centric activities and the bias still remains
mildly on the downside. The Markets will see weakness creeping in if it slips
well below 6100 levels.
All and all, the Markets are likely to trade in a range with
a mildly negative bias. However, any intraday spurt cannot be ruled out as volatility
is likely to remain firmly ingrained in last two days of expiry. This is likely
to cause the Markets see volatile swings on the either side. Overall, still, aggressive
positions on either side should be avoided and concentration should be laid on
protecting profits wherever possible until the directional bias gets clear.
Continuation of cautious outlook is advised for today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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