MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
April 11, 2013
After spending the first half of the session in a capped
range and struggling to maintain gains, the Markets staged a smart pullback in
the second half to end the day with decent gains. The markets opened on
positive note on expected lines and it spent the entire morning session in a
20-odd points range as it remained directionless and in sidewards trajectory.
It saw one minor dip in the afternoon trade while it pared its gains and dipped
into the negative to give the day’s low of 5477.20. But immediately thereafter,
the Markets saw a very smart pullback. It came back into the green, perked up
further and went on to give the day’s high of 5569.25. It hovered around those
levels for a while and finally ended the day at 5558.70, posting a decent gain
of 63.60 points or 1.16% while still forming a slightly lower top and lower bottom
on the Daily High Low charts.
Today would be an important session for the Markets again.
The Markets staged a pullback yesterday and has halted exactly at one of the
pattern resistance, a double bottom support which it breached on the downside.
It would be important to see if the Markets hovers and consolidates around
those levels or continue with its up move. Overall, a flat opening is expected
today and intraday trajectory would continue to play important role to dictate
the trend for today.
For today, the levels of 5560 and 5595 shall act as
immediate resistance for the Markets. Supports come in at 5510 and 5470 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is
36.7848 and it has crossed above from its oversold territory which is a bullish
indicator. Apart from this, it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish
divergence or any kind of failure swings. The Daily MACD still continues to
remain bearish as it trades below its signal line.
On the derivative front, NIFTY futures have went on to add
over 7.89 lakh shares or 4.33% in open interest. The positive reading of this
figure is that new fresh longs have been added and the rise that we saw
yesterday is not just a short covering in the Markets.
Overall, it is likely that the Markets continues its up move
but at the same time may see some consolidation until it significantly moves
past its 200-DMA levels which it breached on the downside.
All and all, until the Markets moves past its 200-DMA which
it breached on the downside, it may continue to see up move but would also see
two way volatile movements and bit of consolidation in between. The movements
may remain volatile and also range bound until a comprehensive trend reversal
is first attempted and confirmed. Until this happens, trades are advised to
take a extremely short term view and take very selective and stock specific
approach while protecting profits in an extremely vigilant manner. Overall,
cautious outlook is continued to be advised for today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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