MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
February 15, 2015
After taking breather for a day, the Markets continued with
its corrective trend yesterday as it opened flat and headed nowhere until the first
half of the session, but saw further
creation of shorts as it gave up in the second half to end the day with losses.
The Markets opened on a moderately positive note and traded in a capped range
as it gave its intraday high of 5940.20 in the very early minutes of the trade.
It continued to trade in a capped range until afternoon and headed nowhere.
However, in the second half of the session, the Markets saw some intensified pressure
as it dipped further into the red. The Markets went on to give the day’s low of
5884.55 after a brief attempt to recover and finally ended the day at 5896.95,
posting net losses of 36 points or 0.61%, while it formed a lower top and lower
bottom on the Daily High Low charts.
Today’s analysis would again tend to remain more or less
similar to that of yesterday. The Markets are likely to open on a flat to
mildly positive note and look for directions. We may see some brief respite
from the weakness that we saw yesterday but again, the Markets would continue
to terribly depend upon the intraday trajectory it forms. This will continue to
dictate the trend for today.
The levels of 5950 and 5980 shall continue to act as
immediate resistance for today. The Supports come in at 5825.50 in form of
100-DMA.
The lead indicators show some mild sign of support coming in
at lower levels. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 38.86.97
and it shows no failure swings. The NIFTY has set a new 14-day low whereas the
RSI has not and this is BULLISH DIVERGENCE. The Daily MACD continues to trade
below its signal line.
Besides a mild sign of Markets bottoming out on the lead
indicators, the NIFTY Futures have continued to add over 6.49 lakh shares or
4.84% in Open Interest. This signifies creation of shorts with increased volume
in the Markets.
The Markets may see some supports coming in due to the lead
indicators showing some mild indication of bottoming out and also due the
shorts that exists in the system. However, on the upside the levels of 5940
still continues to act as immediate resistance. Sustainable up move shall occur
only after the Markets moves past these levels.
All and all, though no very specific triggers for the up
move, some mild indications surely exists of the Markets bottoming out. Even in
case of some continuing weakness, the Markets are likely to find supports around
these levels and it shall attempt once again to move past its immediate
resistance levels of 5940-5950 levels. While we continue to reiterate our view
on avoiding shorts, some selective purchases may be made. Overall, continuance
of cautious outlook with mild optimism is advised for today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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