Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, June 26, 2012

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY                                                       June 26, 2012
The Markets had a turbulent start to the week as the levels of 100-DMA acted as a resistance and the RBI’s announcement did not meet the street expectations as the Markets ended the day with losses after a buoyant session during the day.  Markets opened higher contrary to expectations and further strengthened to give the day’s high of 5194.60. This was against the expected resistance levels of 5200 mentioned by us. It came off a little post the day’s high and traded in a range, but came off swiftly in the last hour of the trade. It erased all of its gains, dipped into the red and went on to give the day’s low of 5105.65. It finally ended the day at 5114.65, posting a net loss of 31.40 points or 0.61%. It has, still formed a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Severe consolidation continued yesterday and that is likely to continue today also, but we can expect to see some respite from the quantum of weakness that we saw yesterday in the last hour of the trade. The Markets are expected to  open on a flat to moderately positive note and look for directions. There is no negative breakdown on Charts and thus, the intraday trajectory would be continue to remain critically important as the Markets continues to remain in a broad range.

The levels of 5162 and 5200 would continue to act as resistance on the Charts and the levels of 5090 and 5074 shall act as immediate support.

The lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 55.3369 and it continues to remain neutral as it shows no negative or positive divergence and / or failure swings. The Daily MACD still continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line. The NIFTY PCR stands at 1.45 as against 1.52 yesterday.

Having said this, it is important to note that the NIFTY and Stock Futures have added in net Open Interest and thus this shows creation of fresh shorts on key select counters in the last hour of the trade.

We can fairly conclude that there is no negative breach on the Charts as yet and the Markets shall continue to remain in the  broad trading range however, the levels of 5200 has  become an immediate top and fresh up move shall occur only above 5200. However, again, given no negative breach on the Charts, the Markets shall remain in a range with an upward bias as the under current remains intact.

All and all, give this reading of no negative breach on one hand and the levels of 5200 acting as immediate top, this range bound movement shall continue. Any profit taking bouts should be used to make select purchases and shorts should be strictly avoided. However, at the same time, profits now needs to be vigilantly protected at higher levels. Overall, positive caution is advised.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331


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