MARKET TREND FOR TODAY June 14, 2012
The Markets staged a perfect consolidation yesterday on the
Daily Charts as it ended the day flat with negligible gains after moving in
either directions. The Markets opened moderately lower and after trading in a range, gave its
intraday low of 5095.45 in the later morning session. The Markets thereafter,
as it has been doing in couple of previous sessions saw a sharp recovery. It
recovered all of its losses and also went on to give the intraday high of
5144.90. However, it pared its gains later in the session and ended the day at
5121.45, posting a negligible gain of 5.55 points or 0.11%. It has formed a
higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
We expect the phase of consolidation to continue in the
Markets ahead to two important external events. The Inflation numbers shall
come in today and based on that, the Markets will have expectations on the RBI monetary
policy to be announced on Monday in which there is consensus expectation of a
rate cut. The Markets, until the announcements come in, are likely to remain in
a range, and bit volatile.
The levels of 5148 and 5195 shall act as immediate
resistance on the Charts and the levels of 5080 and 5068 shall act as supports.
The lead indicators continue to remain in place which
indicates the underlying current to be intact. The RSI—Relative Strength Index
on the Daily Chart is 61.0689 and it has reached its highest value in last
14-days which is bullish. It does not show any negative / positive divergence.
The Daily MACD to remains bullish as it trades above its signal line.
The NIFTY and Stocks futures have added in net open
interest. The NIFTY PCR is at 1.48 and this still leaves a decent gap for
continuation of up move.
Having said this, there are non-technical events that shall
have impact on the Markets in the coming week. The Greece outcome, the
inflation numbers coming in today and the RBI Monetary Policy announcements on
Monday will have Markets reacting to it. However, the undercurrent, as
mentioned earlier, still remains very much intact.
All and all, the
reading and conclusion remains very much the same like that of yesterday. The Markets
are consolidating, but are trading above its critical support levels at Close.
In such consolidating Markets, shorts should be strictly avoid unless there are
explicit triggers. Longs too should not be aggressively taken. Highly selective
approach with vigilant profit protection should be maintained. Overall,
cautious optimism is advised for the day.
Milan
Vaishnav,
Consulting
Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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