MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
May 31, 2012
A mixed felling of caution and pessimism weighed on the
session yesterday ahead of expiry of the current derivative series and the
coming out of Q4 GDP numbers as the Markets remained highly volatile during the
entire trading hours and ended the day with losses. The Markets opened modestly
negative in line with the Asian Markets and remained negative throughout the
session in a very narrow 25-odd points range. At one point of time, the Markets
recovered sharply from lower levels twice, but finally, towards the end of the
session, pared all of its intermittent recovery bouts as it gave its day’s low
of 4944.90. It finally ended the day at 4950.75, posting a net loss of 39.35
points or 0.79%. It has formed a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High
Low Charts.
Today being the expiry day, we are all likely to see the
session continuing to remain dominated with heavy rollover centric activities.
Further as a caution ahead of Q4 GDP Data and due to global weakness, we are
also likely to see lower opening in the Markets today. The Markets shall open
negative and thus intraday trajectory would be important as lot of shorts were
again created in the Markets with the NIFTY futures discount widened.
Today, the levels of 4995 and 5030 shall act as immediate
resistance and the levels of 4910 and 4875 shall act as support on the Charts.
The lead indicators still continue to remain in place. The
RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 43.9010 and it is neutral as it shows no
negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to trade above
its signal line and is therefore, bullish.
The NIFTY and Stock futures have continued to add
significant Open Interest yesterday signifying addition in Open Interest. The
NIFTY rollovers and Market-wide rollovers have been slightly lower than the
previous series and thus, we may see total dominance of rollover centric
activities today. Further to this, the Markets shall react to the Q4 GDP
numbers that shall be announced later today.
All and all, the Markets shall open weak and trade in a range
in the early session and then react to external news flow such as GDP Numbers,
etc. There are chances that we see some recovery in the later part of the day.
It is advised to remain highly selective and protect profits at higher levels.
Cautious outlook is advised for today.
Milan
Vaishnav,
Consulting
Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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