Thursday, May 24, 2012

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, May 24, 2012

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY                                               May 24, 2012
The bleeding Rupee took the Markets take a further moderate dip as the session remained absolutely volatile and directionless on expected lines and the Markets, after spending the session going nowhere, ended the day with moderate losses. The Markets opened negative and after trading in a capped range, saw a bout of weakness as it gave its intraday low of 4803.95 in the late morning session. The Markets saw a sharp recovery again, traded in a range and gave up again. However, it saw some recovery again as it finally ended the day at 4835.65, posting a loss of 24.85 points or 0.51%. It formed a sharply lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

The Markets are Oversold a gain and today, we can expect a modestly positive opening in the Markets. The rise and quantum of rise in the Petrol price would  be sentimentally positive and key would be to see it the Markets further capitalizes on the positive opening that it is set to get today. The intraday trajectory would be important.

The levels of 4880 and 4935 would act as immediate resistance and the levels of 4810 and 4780 would act as immediate supports.

The lead indicators point towards some potential relief from the current weakness.  The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 29.5454 and it does not show any failure swing. The NIFTY has set a new 14-day low but the RSI has not and this is Bullish Divergence. The Daily MACD continues to trade below its signal line. 

Both NIFTY and Stock futures have added nominal Open Interest with the FIIs remaining moderately net buyers in both F&O and Cash segment.

Overall, there is no trend reversal or even a pullback as yet, which we feel is long overdue. The Markets are oversold and we may see some pullback from this levels today, but intraday trajectory would be equally important to see if the Markets sustains these expected modest opening gains.

All and all, it is advised to continue to tread the Markets on a cautious note. Aggressive positions should still be avoided and shorts should be completely avoided. Adequate liquidity should be maintained to protect existing positions and profits should be vigilantly booked at higher levels. Volatility is going to stay. Overall, positive caution is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331


No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.