Thursday, May 17, 2012

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, May 17, 2012

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY                                                 May 17, 2012
Markets opened lower with weak global cues and went on to end the day with losses as it got oversold again on Close Charts. The Markets saw a gap down opening following weak global cues and post opening in the red, made no attempts to recover. It remained in a falling channel and went on to give the day’s low of 4837.05. The Markets made an feeble attempt to recover from its lows in the latter half of the session,  but gave up again to finally end the day at 4858.25, posting a loss of 84.55 points or 1.71%. The volumes remained around average and the Markets closed heavily Oversold, forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

The Markets stands OVERSOLD again, and thus, we can see some respite coming in from the weakness that we saw yesterday. The Markets are expected to open on a modestly positive note and look for directions and the intraday trajectory would continue to remain important and resistance would be seen on the downside.

The levels of 4925 and 4965 are immediate resistance on the Charts and the levels of 4840 and 4810 are immediate supports.

The lead indicators continue to remain OVERSOLD. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 27.8096 and is in OVERSOLD range and also has reached its lowest value in last 14-days. IT does not show any negative divergence. The Daily MACD continues to remain below its signal line.

The Markets have seen external pressure being exerted on it and during such time, it tends to defy the technicals. The NIFTY has lost over 175 points while being OVERSOLD vindicates this point. However, in such case, it is best advised to sit through this, without attempting to average and maintain adequate liquidity.

Today also, we can expect some respite from the weakness that we have been seeing in last couple of sessions. However, at the same point, it is still advised to remain light on positions and avoid any heavy positions on either side, and shorts should  be specifically avoided. 

All and all, even with some respite, aggressive positions should be avoided. This is because, we may see a pullback, but what we need is a reversal. There is a difference between pullback and reversal. Thus, highly stock specific and selective approach should be avoided and only selective purchases may be made avoiding aggressive positions and protecting profits. Shorts should be strictly avoided. Overall, a cautious optimism is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331


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