MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
April 24, 2012
An exit by a hedge fund – Macquarie Asia
Alpha Fund, send the otherwise dull session into a disappointing one as the
Markets saw a steep cut to end the day with significant losses and the loss got
aggravated by fresh European woes as the Markets also saw high addition of
short positions. The Markets opened on a moderately positive note and traded
briefly into the green as it saw a intraday high of 5310.55 in the early part
of the trade. The Markets then gradually drifted into the red and then
transformed itself into negative falling trajectory. It saw sustained drift in
the valuations as it went on to give the intraday low of 5187.15. It finally
ended the day at 5200.60 posting a cut of 90.25 points or 1.71%. It formed a
lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low charts.
Today’s session remains a important session
for the Markets. It is very important to note that despite yesterday paring of
NIFTY, there is still no negative breach on the Charts and the Markets remain
in a broad range. Secondly, the fall yesterday has been due to external
non-technical reasons and this has also seen addition of huge short positions
in the Markets. We are all likely to see stability returning to the Markets and
expect the Markets to open on a decently positive note and look for directions
with the intraday trajectory remaining very important.
For today, the levels of 5245 and 5300 shall
act as resistance and the levels of 5136 shall remain all important support
levels at Close in form of 200-DMA.
All lead indicators still continue to
remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 44.1956
and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-day which is bearish but it does
not show any negative divergence. The Daily MACD is bullish as it still
continues to trade above its signal line.
It is very important to note that the NIFTY
futures which was trading at 20-point premium in the beginning of the session
has gone into discount of 20-points and this signifies creation of huge short
positions in the system. Further, if Pattern Analysis is done, the Markets have
NOT shown any negative breach and trades well within the range above critical
support levels.
It is important to keep our head in place
when the Markets gets governed by non-technical factors and sees such volatile
movements. We are in expiry week and will continue to see sessions dominated
with rollover centric activities.
All and all, with no breach on the Charts,
it is very strongly advised to hold on to all positions and maintain liquidity.
It is also strongly advised to avoid shorts as there are chances of short traps
occurring and one getting trapped in shorts at lower levels. With no negative
breach on the Charts, the Markets will continue to remain in a range and bit
volatile during this expiry sessions. Overall, while avoiding aggressive
positions, cautiously positive outlook is advised for today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.