Monday, April 2, 2012

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, April 02, 2012

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY                                                                  April 2, 2012
After dipping below its crucial 200-DMA on Thursday but holding that support at Close, the Markets continued with their up move on Friday as it opened positive, remained in rising trajectory for the entire session and went on to end the day with decent gains. The Markets opened on a positive note and remained in upward rising trajectory for the entire session. It went on to give the intraday high of 5307.10 and ended the day at 5295.55, posting a decent gain of 116.70 points or 2.25%. It formed a sharply higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Charts and has ended the week flat with net gains of just 17.35 points or 0.38%.

For today, we can expect the Markets to open on a flat to moderately negative note. The Markets are expected to consolidate after Friday’s gains and thus intraday trajectory would continue to remain important and crucial. The way Markets took supports at their 200-DMA, it has closed near its 50-DMA and thus this level of 5312 is likely to act a resistance at Close levels if the Markets consolidate its gains.

The levels of 5312 and 5365 are immediate resistance on the Charts and the levels of 5250 and 5210 are immediate supports.  The volumes too would be important to watch out for and are expected to be lower if the Markets consolidates.

All lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 50.5086 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to trade below its signal line. On the Weekly Chart, the RSI is 53.5388 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Weekly MACD continues to remain BULLISH as it trades above its signal line. 

The NIFTY Futures have shown a nominal decline in Open Interest and the Stock Futures have shown increase in Open Interest. The overall rally on Friday can be translated as very sharp short covering which was somewhat replaced with select buying and this trend is expected to continue this week. The reading of Daily and Weekly indicators on the Charts put this week’s trend as “Neutral to bullish”.

All and all, the Markets may consolidate today and even this week, this being a very short week of just 3 working days. This consolidation may keep the Markets in a capped range and usually volatile. However, if the Markets consolidates, it is likely to keep the volumes low. However, given all this, the bias remains on the upside as the overall technicals remain intact. Shorts should be avoided and selective purchases may be made. Overall, positive approach with some degree of caution is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331


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