Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services

Friday, February 13, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, February 13, 2015

MARKET REPORT February 13, 2015

After spending the most part of the session struggling to move past the crucial levels of 8640, the Markets finally saw sharp up move in the last hour of the trade as it ended the day with decent gains. The Markets saw quiet opening on expected lines, the Markets remaining positive in the morning trade but slowly drifted into the red by afternoon. Though it did not saw any major downside as well but continued to trade in a extremely capped and narrow range just below 8640 levels while it formed its intraday low of 8599.25. It was in the last 90-minuts of the trade that the Markets drifted back into the positive territory. It saw a very sharp, near parabolic up move as it went onto move past the 8640 levels. It further went on to form the day’s 8732.55. These levels were maintained and the Markets ended the day at 8711.55, posting a decent gain of 84.15 points or 0.98% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 2015

Speaking purely on technical grounds, the Markets are expected to open on a positive note and continue with its up move at least in the initial trade. Having said this, the levels of 8640 that it moved past yesterday will now once again continue to act as support in event of any consolidation or minor downticks. The overall trend of the Markets remains intact for the immediate short term.

The levels of 8775 and 8820 will not act as immediate resistance for the Markets. The supports exist at 8640 and 8610 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 56.5075 and it remains neutral showing no bullish or bearish divergence or failure swing. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish trading below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY February futures have added over 4.97 lakh shares or 2.01% in Open Interest. This clearly signifies addition of fresh long positions in yesterday’s up move. It also signifies that the no short covering caused the yesterday’s rise. This makes the Markets little bullish in the immediate short term.

Taking a cue from pattern analysis, the Markets have continued to remain in an overall long term rising channel. Though it did resist to its short term important resistance levels of 8640 yesterday for quite some time, it has moved past that level. This level is now expected to act as immediate support for the Markets. Given all things remaining constant, the Markets are expected to test the upper rising trend line once again before it approaches for any fresh lows.

Overall, the Markets have successfully kept its overall prime trend intact. Baring some consolidation and minor corrections aside, the basic trend remains positive. However, some volatility will continue to stay ingrained. Having said this, it is advised to make fresh selective purchases now but also profits at higher levels should be vigilantly protected. Overall positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, February 12, 2015

MARKET REPORT February 12, 2015

The Markets had a stable session yesterday as it continued with its up move and ended the day with modest gains while the levels of 8640 also continued to act as support. The Markets saw a positive opening and remained positive throughout the session. Also, the entire session of was spent in a 25-odd range as post opening the Markets remained throughout in sideways trajectory. In the mid session, some strength came as the Markets attempted to move past the levels of 8640 as it formed its intraday high of 8651.95. However, it came off a bit in the end while continuing to trade in a ranged manner. The Markets ended the day at 8627.40, posting a modest gain of 61.85 points or 0.72% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 12, 2015

Today’s analysis continues to remain more or less on similar lines as the behaviour of the Markets vis-à-vis the levels of 8640 will remain crucial. Expect the Markets to open on a quiet to mildly negative note and look for directions. The Markets are likely to initially resist to the levels of 8640 with an upward bias.

The levels of 8640 and 8695 will act as immediate resistance levels. The supports come in much lower at 8470 and 8445 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 51.7604 and it remains neutral without showing any bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD remains bearish trading below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY February futures have shed over 1.33 lakh shares or nominal 0.54% in Open Interest. This signifies no major change in overall positions in the Markets. A minor change in OI also indicates consolidating and directionless markets as well.

Taking a cue from pattern analysis the Markets are resisting very much on expected lines to the levels of 8640. It corrected very sharply after testing that level a day before and yesterday, it resisted moving past that level. This is the level that the Markets broke on the downside and therefore it now acts as a resistance. It would be very important for the Markets to move past this level to resume its overall major up trend. Until the Markets move past this level, it will continue to consolidate in a broad range.

Overall, though the bias of the Markets certainly remains on the upside, it is advised to maintain moderate exposures until it moves past 8640. Stock specific action will be witnessed and highly selective purchases may be made as sectoral out performance will continue. Overall, positive optimism is advised for the day.