MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
April 18, 2013
The Markets traded very much in alignment of what was
analysed in our yesterday’s edition of Daily Market Trend as it began to
consolidate but still maintained the levels above of its 200-DMA. The Markets
opened more or less on a flat note and firmed up a bit in the morning trade. It gave its intraday
high of 5732.15 in the late morning trade. The Markets saw some brief sideward
movement around these levels and then it saw a sudden paring of all of its
gains in the afternoon trade. The Markets came off its highs and dipped
momentarily in to the negative territory as it gave its intraday low of 5669.
The Markets recovered again into the green but traded in a very narrow and
capped range. It finally ended the day at 5688.70 closing absolutely flat with
very negligible loss of 0.25 points, while continuing to form a higher top and
higher bottom on the Daily High Low charts.
Today’s analysis would remain more or less similar to that
of yesterday. The Markets are expected to open on a flat note and look for
directions. It would be important for the Markets to remain in positive
trajectory and also maintain levels above of its 200-DMA in order to just
consolidate and avoid any short term weakness.
For today, the levels of 5715 and 5740 shall act as
immediate resistance on the Charts. The supports come in at 5650 and 5635 levels.
The lead indicators paid a neutral picture. The RSI—Relative
Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 51.0093 and it is neutral as it shows no
bullish or bearish divergence or any kind of failure swings. The Daily MACD is
bullish as it now trades above its signal
line.
On the derivative front,
the NIFTY Futures have further went on to shed over 8.12 lakh shares or
4.10% in Open Interest. This is a little
point to worry as this shows some unwinding in the derivative segments was
seen. It is important to see that if some shorts were covered, it has to get
replaced by fresh longs.
Overall, given the positive bias of the lead indicators, the
derivative data indicates that some short term consolidation or minor
correction cannot be ruled out unless we see some fresh longs being built up.
Capped movement may also be seen as we have long weekend, tomorrow being
trading holiday on account of Ram Navmi.
The Markets shall remain range bound and little volatile and
some amount of consolidation or minor correction from higher levels cannot be
ruled out given the combined reading of the lead indicators and the derivative
data. It is thus advised to continue to remain stock specific until the Markets
resumes is up move with conviction. It would be important for the Markets to
maintain levels above of its 200-DMA which is 5659.25. Overall continuation of
light positions with cautious outlook is advised for today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
