Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services

Friday, November 30, 2012

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, November 30, 2012

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY November 30, 2012

Unabated rise continued in the Markets yesterday, even on the expiry day with volatility totally absent as the Markets ended the day with yet another robust gains. The Markets opened on a positive note and maintained its upward rising trajectory all throughout the session. The Markets kept giving new intraday highs as the session progressed. Towards the end, the Markets went on to give its 52-week high of 5833.50, touching the upper end of the broad trading range it has been trading in. It finally ended the day at 5825, posting a gain of 97.55 points or 1.70% forming a sharply higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Today, expect a quiet opening in the Markets and it would be very critically important to see if the Markets maintains the levels above of 5815 which is the upper end of the broad trading range it has been trading in. If the Markets are able to maintain levels above 5815, it would attempt to give a new break out on the upside, but at the same time shall get almost overbought.

For today, the levels of 5870 and 5940 are the two immediate resistance levels. Supports come in much lower at 5730 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 68.4086 and it has reached its highest value in last 14-days which is bullish. The Daily MACD too is bullish as it trades above its signal line.

Having said this, it is important to note that the Markets have risen near 5% or over 200 points in last 2-3 sessions some consolidation / correction is overdue in the Markets. Further, it is important to note that any further such rise that we saw in last two sessions would make the Markets “Overbought”.

So, the opening levels in the Markets and its trading above the levels of 5815-5820 would be critical to watch for. It would attempt to give a upward breakout if it tries to move past 5820 again but at the same time, due to reasons mentioned above, there are equal chances that some minor correction sets in.

All and all, even though lead indicators remain buoyant, some profit taking can be witnessed later in the day and the possibility of paring of some gains cannot be ruled out. It is strongly suggested to now refrain from taking any aggressive long positions and protect profits on the long positions. Any continued rise in the manner witnessed in last two days shall make the Markets “overbought” and unhealthy. Extremely cautious outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, November 29, 2012

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY November 29, 2012

The Markets remained shut yesterday on account of “Gurunanak Jayanti” . On Tuesday, the Markets had a extremely buoyant session as it opened positive and remained in positive territory all throughout the session ended the day on a very strong note. The Markets opened positive and kept making new intraday highs during the day. Towards the end of the session, it gave an intraday high of 5733.20. It maintained those levels until the end of the session and ended the day on a very buoyant note at 5727.45, posting a strong gain of 91.55 points or 1.62% while forming a sharply higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Today, the Markets are expected to open on a flat note and look for directions. The Markets have resisted to its resistance levels of 5730 and if it opens below this, then this level might act as resistance. On the upside, this may act as supports but the Markets still continue to remain in a broad trading range, the upper end being the 5800-5820 levels. Thus, the opening of the Markets and the intraday trajectory it forms shall continue to play critical roll in deciding the trend for today.

The levels of 5730 and 5800 shall act as resistance and the supports come very low at around 5630 and 5575 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 60.3629 and it is neutral as it shows no negative / positive divergence or failure swings. The MACD has turned bullish as it has reported a positive crossover and it now trades above its signal line.

Having said this, it is important to note that today is the expiry day of the current November Derivative Series and the session is likely to remain heavily dominated with rollover centric activities. The Markets have continued to remain in a very broad trading range and it has not been out of it as yet.

All and all, in case of negative opening, 5730 shall pose a resistance and in case of positive opening 5800 shall pose important and major resistance to the Markets. In the initial session, the opening levels of the Markets and the intraday trajectory that it forms thereafter shall be critical for today.

Overall, mildly positive session can be expected. The session is also likely to remain volatile owing to rollovers and the Markets may still continue to remain in a range. Selective purchases may be made and sectoral out performance may be seen. However, it is strongly advised to remain highly selective and keep protecting profits on either side of the trade.