MARKET REPORT September 17, 2013
The Markets had a session precisely as analysed in our
yesterday’s edition of Daily Market Trend Guide as the Markets did see a gap up
opening on back of global cues but at the same time did not sustain those gains
and ended the day with minor loss. The Markets saw a gap up opening and gave
its intraday high of 5957.25 in the very early minutes of the trade. However,
on expected lines, the Markets failed to capitalize on those gains. It
transformed itself into falling trajectory post opening and steadily kept
losing ground. At one point of time, it pared all of its gains, dipped further
into the red to give an intraday low of 5798.15. However, as of now, the
200-DMA levels held out as support and the Markets ended the day at 5840.55,
posting a minor loss of 10.05 points or 0.17% while forming a higher top but
lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
The Markets have taken support at its 200-DMA at Close which
is 5839.99 today. Today, it is likely to see a modestly negative opening and
therefore, the opening levels of the Markets and its behaviour vis-à-vis the
levels of 200-DMA would again remain crucial. The markets will have to remain
above its 200-DMA in order to continue with consolidation. Any dip below
200-DMA is likely to bring in more weakness in the Markets.
For today, the levels of 5957 would act as immediate
resistance for the Markets. This level has become an immediate top for the Markets
and any sustainable up move shall only after the Markets move past this level.
Supports come in at 5805 and 5760 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 59.42
and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure
swings. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it trades above its signal line.
On the derivative front, the NIFTY September futures have
shed another 5.05 lakh shares or 2.92% in Open Interest. This clearly suggest
that there has been offloading in yesterday’s session and the Markets are more
likely to continue with its corrective activities.
Given the pattern analysis and the reading of technical
charts, the Markets have taken support at its 200-DMA at Close. In this case,
the it becomes necessary for the Markets to remain and trade above this level
to avoid any further weakness creeping in. Again, similarly, if the Markets
breaches its 200-DMA, it is very much likely that we see some more corrective
activity in the Markets. Given the F&O data, the chances of the Markets
breaching this levels and seeing more corrective activity are higher given the
shedding of the Open Interest that is being reported since last two sessions.
All and all, we continue to sound caution for today as well.
Given the above reading, it is advised to refrain from creating any fresh longs
any new position should be created on highly selective basis. Profits should be
protected at higher levels. Some amount of volatility and sectoral out
performance would continue. Overall, it is advised to remain light on positions
while maintaining a cautious outlook on the Markets today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
