MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
February 26, 2013
The markets had a volatile session yesterday, but still
headed nowhere as it ended the day absolutely flat once again after a volatile
trade swinging both sides. The Markets
opened on a moderately positive note and after brief positive trade, drifted
into the red. I again managed to come back into the positive territory but was
not able to sustain these minor gains. I saw a sharp paring of gains as it went
on to give the day’s low of 5825 in the mid afternoon trade. However, the
Markets saw equally sharp pullback later as it
traded back into positive and also went on to give the day’ high of
5878.40. This was not sustained either as it slowly pared this recovery also as
it traded again around its previous close levels. It finally ended the day at
5854.75, posting a negligible gain of 4.45 points or 0.08%. It formed a lower
top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Today, we are expected to see a modestly negative opening in
the Markets. The Markets continue to stay critically poised as it struggles to
stay above its pattern support of 5840-5850 however it has maintained its
support of 100-DMA of 5843.06 at Close levels. It would be critical for the
Markets to maintain levels above this in order to avoid weakness. Some volatile
reaction, though momentary, are expected to Rail Budget which shall come up
later today.
For today, the levels of 5890 and 5915 are immediate
resistance for the Markets. The critical supports come in at 5840 and 5843 at
Close in form of 100-DMA and the next support comes in at 5780 levels.
The lead indicators show no directional triggers. The RSI—Relative
Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 37.1247 and it is neutral as it shows no
negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to trade below
its signal line.
On the derivative front, the NIFTY Futures have continued to
add open interest. It has added in total open interest by over 4.30 lakh
shares.
Along with three important events, i.e. Rail Budget,
Economic Survey and Union Budget coming up in this week, which is also a expiry
week of the current derivative series, the Markets shall continue to see such behaviour
for the rest of the week. The directional movement is expected only next week
once Markets digests all domestic developments.
All and all, with the Markets likely to remain volatile and
consolidate, it will have limited downward bias, at least as of now until
anything seriously negative comes out. This is because of the shorts that
exists in the system. However, until it gets any directional trigger, it shall
continue to remain volatile and range bound. It is advised to continue to
remain light on the positions while also continuing with cautious approach to
the Markets.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
