MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, OCTOBER 03, 2016
Though the equity markets on Friday ended the day with
modest gains, we expect the Markets to remain in a capped range today. Though
even if we see some intermittent technical pullbacks, the overall bias would
remain negative and the levels of 8690 will act as stiff resistance to the
Markets. The opening is likely to remain modest but intraday trajectory that
the Markets form would dominate the trend for the day. Volatility cannot be
ruled out.
For today, the levels of 8655 and 8690 will act as immediate
resistance whereas the levels of 8560 and 8610 will act as supports.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is
41.7661 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or
any failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to trade bearish below its signal
line.
On the derivatives front, the NIFTY October futures have
shed over 9.92 lakh shares or 4.17% in Open Interest. This shows some
offloading of long positions in the Markets.
Let us now have a look at pattern analysis. As mentioned in
our Friday’s edition, the NIFTY has formed a Descending Triangle Pattern on the
Daily Charts. The technical structure was weak for the short term anyway and
the geopolitical tensions aggravated the effect. The Markets have clearly shown
a downward breach from this descending triangle formation. It is also important
to note that the neckline of 8690 that the Markets broke is also the 50-DMA.
Therefore, even if we see technical pullback, this level will pose stiff
resistance to the Markets on its way up.
We do not rule out any technical pullback but it becomes
important to note that even with no geopolitical developments in the region,
the technicals anyway remain bearish for the short term. Now, with any
geopolitical tensions, if any, in the region, the negative effect may be
magnified on the Markets. In any case, highly cautious mood will prevail and
the pullbacks will limit up to 8690 levels. The descending triangle pattern
will fail only if the Markets move past 8690 levels comprehensively. Until then,
all pullbacks and up moves will meet with selling pressure from higher levels.
Milan Vaishnav, CMT
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg.
No. INH000003341)
Member:
Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com
+91-98250-16331
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