Thursday, August 4, 2011

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, August 04, 2011

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY


The  Markets showed a reluctant trend on either side as  it neither recovered much nor it moved down further but ended the day with modest losses. However, it formed a sharply lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Today, we can expect the Markets to open on a mildly negative note and look for directions.

Today, the technical picture of the Markets and the F&O statistics slightly contradictive data. Today, following subdued global cues and weak technicals, we can expected the Markets to open down and trade negative at least in the initial trade and continue to depend grossly on the intraday trajectory that it forms during the day. For today, with such opening expected, the levels of 5422 and 5450 shall continue to act as resistance and the levels of 5378 and 5340 may act as supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 38.864 and it does not show any negative divergence. However, it has reached its lowest value in last 14-Days which is bearish. The Daily MACD continues to trade below its signal line.

On the Candles, A Falling Window has occurred which usually implies continuation of the bearish trend, which appears to be the case with NIFTY.

Thus, as explained above, the technicals of the Markets continue to paint a grim picture. Adding to this, the Markets opened and ended below the trend line support of around 5450 and this now shall act as temporary resistance. On the other hand, the NIFTY has added significant open interest since last two sessions. This may cause the Markets to see a intermittent pullback, though while continuing to remain in a range.

All and all, while intermittent pullbacks cannot be rule out, Markets continue to remain in negative channel. It  is, thus, critically important to vigilantly protect profits at higher levels, while still avoiding blanket shorts due to addition in OI. Overall, cautious outlook is advised.
 


Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

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