MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, JUNE 30,
2016
The Markets have staged a smart up move on
back of positive global cues and have managed to trade back into the channel
moving past its pattern resistance and in the process, has recovered nearly 75%
of its Friday’s losses. Today as well, tracking positive global cues and
favorable technicals, the Markets are likely to see a decently positive start
and move towards its immediate top. It would be extremely important to see if
the Markets sustain the expected positive opening and capitalize on that.
For today, the levels of 8255 and 8290 will
act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports come lower at
8150 and 8110 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the
Daily Chart is 56.2962 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish
divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD stays bearish as it continues
to trade below its signal line.
On the derivative front, the NIFTY June
series have shed over 25.58 lakh shares or 23.79% in Open Interest whereas July
series added over 32.05 lakh shares or 38.68% in Open Interest. The NIFTY PCR
stands at 1.15 as against 1.07.
While having a look at pattern analysis, we
now need to take a individual look our Charts. The Brexit effect is left behind
and the Markets have recovered over 70% of its losses.
Having said this, until
yesterday, the Markets were resisting to the trend line as it had fallen out of
the rising channel drawn from February lows. Yesterday, the Markets have
managed to get inside that channel once again. With today’s expected opening,
the Markets will move towards testing its immediate highs of 8280-8295 range
which was formed pre-Brexit date. This range, individually speaking, continues
to remain an immediate top and resistance for the Markets. It would not be a
surprise if we see some mild profit taking bouts at higher levels.
Also, given the expiry of the current
series today, we will see the Markets remaining dominated with rollover centric
activities. Even if the undercurrent continues to remain intact, some minor
profit taking bouts at higher levels cannot be ruled out. However, it would
once again be a healthy consolidation if it happens at higher levels, before
the Markets attempts to move past its immediate top. Overall, cautious optimism
is advised for the day.
Milan
Vaishnav, CMT
Consulting Technical Analyst
Member: Market
Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
+91-98250-16331
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