Monday, September 29, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, September 30, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                                         September 29, 2014
The Markets had an extremely lackluster session amid low volumes as the Markets spent the entire session in a very narrow range and ended the day flat with nominal losses. The Markets expectedly opened on a very quiet note and spent the morning session and major part of afternoon trade in a narrow and capped 30-odd points range. While trading in positive territory in the afternoon trade, the Markets inched up slightly further to post the day’s high of 7991.75. Soon these gains were pared as the Markets came off and further dipped into the negative. It went on to form the day’s low as well at 7934.70. However, the way Markets did not sustain higher levels, in the same way it did recover from its lows as well. It finally settled the day at 7958.30, posting a nominal loss of 9.95 points or 0.12% while forming slightly higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2014 

Expect the Markets to once again open on a flat note. The Markets may trade flat and indecisive in the initial trade but is later expected to react to the RBI Credit Policy announcements that will come up later. Though nearly all market participants expect the rates to remain unchanged, any slightest of the surprise, on either side would have the Markets sharply react to that.

The levels of 8015 and 8050 would act as resistance while the levels of 7892 and 7818 are expected to act as supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 47.9441 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergences or any failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bearish as it trades below its signal line. 

On the derivative front, the NIFTY October futures have shed over 9.05 lakh shares or 5.52% in Open Interest. This is certainly not an encouraging reading as it demonstrates unwinding /reduction of long positions as the reduction in OI has come with the loss in NIFTY levels.

On the patterns, the Markets continue to follow the same pattern while the levels of 8180 acts as a immediate top for the Markets. The Markets would remain in sideways consolidation wherein we would see a range bound but quite volatile trade. This would remain until the Markets trades above its 50-DMA levels. Any breach below this 50-DMA levels would induce some further weakness in the Markets.

Overall, the Markets would also remain range bound and bit listless because of short trading week. Wednesday would remain the last trading day and a mini vacation follows after that. RBI Rate announcements would be closely watched and any surprise would be sharply reacted to. Apart from that, overall, with the Markets expected to remain in range amid low volumes, it is advised to refrain from creating over exposure in the Markets. Excess leverage should be avoided while maintaining caution during the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member:
Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331

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