Thursday, June 26, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, June 26, 2014

MARKET REPORT                                                                                      June 26, 2014
Yesterday’s day was spent in absolute consolidation as the Markets virtually spent the entire session in a very capped and narrow 20-odd points band and ended the day with minor losses. The Markets opened on a mildly positive note and soon formed its intraday high of 7589.25 in the early minutes of the day. The Markets hovered around those levels for a while and then slipped into the red. It remained in the red for the rest of the session making minor and intermittent recoveries but never moved back in the positive territory. The Markets remained absolutely direction-less with a negative bias and finally managed to end the day at 7589.25, posting a net loss of 10.95 points or 0.14% while forming a similar top and a higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

Today we enter the expiry day of the current June series and the session, like yesterday, is likely to remain dominated with rollovers and given some short positions, some intermittent jerks cannot be ruled out. The Markets are again expected to open on a quiet note and look for directions. Though the bias remains negative, sharp short covering, given the rollovers cannot be ruled out. Volatility shall persist.

For today, the levels of 7595 and 7630 would act as immediate resistance on the Daily Charts. The supports exist at 7510 and 7440 on the downside.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 61.7439 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bearish as it continues to trade below its signal line. 

On the derivative front, heavy rollovers continued as NIFTY June series shed 20.97 lakh shares or 18.45% in Open Interest whereas NIFTY July series added over 31.16 lakh shares or 39.93% in Open Interest. Market Wide rollovers too have remained more or less near its 3-months average.

Going by the pattern analysis, the Markets have managed to maintain levels above of 7510 and until that happens it is likely to continue to consolidate. In event of any slippage below the levels of 7510, we may see some more weakness creeping in. The Markets are currently in a broad trading range, and also in somewhat no-trade zone given the direction-less trend in the last couple of sessions. However, this can be termed as a capped and range bound consolidation in the Markets.

Given this reading, it is advised to continue to take fresh positions on highly selective basis and mainly on defensives. High beta stocks should be avoided and overall leverage too should be controlled and liquidity should be maintained. With the Markets likely to swing in either direction, more due to expiry and also due to technical indicators, overall low amount of exposure and caution are continued to be advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331


No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.