Thursday, October 31, 2013

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, October 31, 2013

MARKET REPORT                                                                                              October 31, 2013
The Markets spent the whole session yesterday flirting with the upper band of key resistance zone of 6230-6250 levels as it resisted these levels numerous times before ended the day with modest gains. The Markets opened on a positive note and spent the first half of the session in  a narrow 20-odd point range resisting near the 6230 levels. The Markets attempted to move past that levels and flirted with the upper resistance levels of 6250 more than once while it gave the day’s high of 6269.20. The Markets failed to breach those level comprehensively and came of more than twice from those levels. It finally ended the day at 6251.70 with a modest gain of 30.80 points or 0.50% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low charts.


MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
Today’s session would be very critical for the Markets as today is the expiry day of the current derivative series. The Markets have closed precisely at the resistance levels of 6250 and it is expected to open on a flat to mildly negative note. If it opens modestly negative, its behaviour vis-à-vis the levels of 6250 would be extremely important and critical.

For today, the levels of 6270 and 6295 would act as immediate resistance levels and the supports would come in at 6205 and 6165 levels.

The lead indicators continue to show weariness on the Daily Charts. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 66.3873 and it does not show any failure swings. But the NIFTY has set a new 14-day high but RSI has not and therefore, the Bearish Divergence continues to Daily Charts. The Daily MACD has reported a positive crossover and it now trades above its signal line. 

On the derivative front, total NIFY Open Interest has continued to show nominal reduction. This signifies no major unwinding of long positions is seen and at the same time, no major longs has been added as well. Rollovers have remained average in line with the previous month.

The reading of pattern analysis on the Daily Charts very clearly suggest the Markets consolidating in the resistance zone of 6230-6250 levels. If we make a plain reading, it has so far not been able to breach those levels comprehensively until now. Further if we read the lead indicators along with this, it shows some tiredness in the indicators and this suggests that there is more time before the Markets breaches these levels on the upside.

All and all, there is no breach of the resistance zone of 6230-6250 on the upside with conviction. Until this happens, high degree of caution is advised in the Markets. Though any downside may be utilized for making fresh purchases, this should be done on extremely careful and selective basis while protecting profits at higher levels. Some amount of volatility would continue to stay. Cautious optimism is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331


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