Monday, June 3, 2013

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, June 03, 2013

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY                                                                   June 03, 2013
The Markets had a deep correction on Friday but absolutely on expected lines as it opened on a negative note, remained negative and weak throughout the session and ended the day with a deep cut. The Markets opened weak following weak global cues and even weaker technicals, the Markets traded with losses in the first half the session. Though the Markets traded with losses, the movement remained more or less sideways with the losses remaining slightly capped and in a range. However, in the second half, the weakness in the Markets intensified as the Markets drifter further on the downside. It went on to give the day’s low of 5975.55 towards the end of the session. No serious recovery was seen as the weakness sustained towards the end. The Markets finally ended the day at 5985.95, posting a deep cut of 138.10 points or 2.26%.


Going strictly by the technicals, the Markets are all set to continue with its corrective activities. Expect the Markets to open on a flat to mildly negative note and look for directions. Intraday trajectory would be crucial and the weaker global cues are likely to contribute to the further low drifting for the Markets. The Markets are likely to test the levels of another pattern support and its 100-DMA.

Today, the levels of 6020 and 6055 are likely to act as resistance for the Markets. The supports are expected to come in at 5935, which is a pattern support and further down at 5897 which is the 100-DMA of the Markets today.

The lead indicators clearly continue to point towards continuation of corrective activities. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 47.9306 and it has reached its lowest value in last 90-days, which is Bearish. Also, RSI has set a new 14-period low whereas NIFTY has not yet and this is Bearish Divergence. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line. On the Weekly Charts, the RSI is 55.8273 and it is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Weekly MACD remains bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the Derivative front, NIFTY June futures have shed over 24.28 lakh shares or massive 13.81% in Open Interest. This is a very clear indications there has been very clear unwinding and offloading of positions on Friday and no shorts have been created. This is very clear and significant indication that that the Markets are all likely to drift lower.

Overall, the technical indicators very clearly suggest that the Markets are likely to see corrective activities continuing in the Markets. If this happen, as mentioned earlier here, the Markets are likely to test its pattern support and further its 100-DMA levels of 5935 and 5897.

All and all, the Markets may continue to see correction and global weakness shall aid to it. The GDP numbers announced on Friday have remained at 10-year low and this is obviously have not gone down well with the Markets. We might see some technical pullback in the interim / intraday, but the technical indicators and the F&O data very clearly suggest continuation of correction in the Markets in the immediate short term. Overall, while protecting profits wherever possible, cautious outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331



No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.