Monday, April 1, 2013

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, April 01, 2013

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY                                                                April 01, 2013
The Markets had a very short and truncated week with two holidays in between but the expiry day saw the Markets ending with sharp gains  towards the end of the session after weak opening. The Markets opened on a negative note following weak clues and gave its intraday low of 5604.85 in the early minutes of the morning trade. Thereafter, after making this initial low, the Markets remained in rising intraday trajectory throughout the session. Markets kept gradually recovering until afternoon session and in the last hour of the trade saw a sharp spurt as it went on to give the intraday high of 5692.95 rising over 86-odd points from the day’s low. It hovered a bit around those levels and finally ended the day at 5682.55 posting a decent gain of 40.95 points or 0.73% making a higher top and similar bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.


Today, expect a flat opening in the Markets. The Markets are expected to open weak and continue to look for directional triggers with the intraday trajectory remaining important. So far, the Markets have held on to its all important support levels of 200-DMA which is 5627.45 today and it would be important that the Markets do not breach these levels in case of some weakness or consolidation again.

For today, the levels of 5725 and 5740 shall act as immediate resistance on the Charts. The support come in at 5625 levels today.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 38.7852 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergences or any kind of failure swings. The Daily MACD is bearish as it still continues to trade below its signal line. On the Weekly Charts too, RSI is 46.5924 and it is neutral as it shows no divergences or failure swings. The Weekly MACD remains below its signal line and is bearish.

On the derivative front, NIFTY has reported 57% rollovers and has added over 20 lakh shares in open interest. The NIFTY PCR is 0.98.

Having said this, there are no directional triggers for the Markets and it may continue to drift in either direction for few sessions. On the downside, as mentioned earlier, major and important support exists at 5627 in form of 200-DMA and it would be necessary that the Markets trades above these levels and do not breach these levels in case of some momentary weakness or some consolidation.

Overall, the Markets are likely to remain in a range with a mild upward bias. However, again, with no directional or technical triggers, it is equally likely that the Markets consolidates in a given range. In such case, it is advised to remain very selective and light on the positions and keep protecting profits wherever possible on either side. Overall neutral but cautious outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331


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