MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
February 19, 2013
The Markets had a quiet day yesterday as it opened on a flat
note and then for most part of the session remain in rising trajectory and in
the end, closed the day with nominal gains. The Markets opened on a flat note
and dipped into the red to give the day’s low of 5878.45
in the very early minutes of the trade. Thereafter, the markets transformed
themselves into rising trajectory and remained so until the end of the session
and went on to give the day’s high of 5911. However in the last hour of the
trade, the Markets pared some of its gains towards the end. It finally ended
the day at 5898.20, posting a nominal gain of 10.80 points or 0.18% while
forming a higher top and higher volumes on the Daily High Low Charts. The
volumes remained much lesser yesterday.
Today is likely to be no different. Expect the Markets to
open on a flat note again and continue to consolidate and trade in a range. The
intraday trajectory would continue to remain important to decide the trend for
today. The Markets have been lacking direction and conviction and this is
resulting into it heading nowhere.
For today, the levels of 5950 and 5975 shall continue to act
as immediate resistance. The supports come in at 5832.75 in form of 100-DMA.
The lead indicators show no directional triggers. The
RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 39.9037 and is neutral as it
shows no bearish or bullish divergence or any kind of failure swings. The Daily
MACD continues to trade below its signal line.
On the derivative front, NIFTY Futures continued to add
nominal Open Interest. The NIFTY PC R stood at 0.93 as against 0.99.
Having said this, it is evident from the above reading that
the Markets have been heading nowhere due to lack of any directional triggers.
There is also lack of conviction on either side and this also evident by lower
volumes that are being witnessed. It is clear that such trend would continue
until Union Budget and the Markets may take any directional call only after
that. Until this happens, the Markets may continue to remain and trade in a
range.
All and all, until the Markets moves past the levels of 5950
again with volumes and conviction, only then we would see the Markets giving us
a sustainable up move. Until then, we may continue to see such low volume
directionless movements. However, it certainly has a limited downside due to
heavy shorts that exists in the system. Any downside can be utilized for
selective buying. Overall, neutral but cautious outlook is advised for today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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