MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
June 25, 2012
The Markets had an turbulent session on Friday as it
witnessed good amount of weakness in the first half of the session but
ultimately saw minor consolidation at Close as it ended the day with moderate
losses after recovering from its day’s lows. The Markets opened negative and
after trading with capped losses, saw itself getting weaker as it went on to
give the day’s low of 5094 in the mid afternoon session. Thereafter, the
Markets saw a decent recovery from its day’s low as it recovered most of its
losses and after a brief range bound trade on the upside, ended the day at
5146.05, posting a moderate loss of 18.95 points or 0.37%. It has formed a
almost parallel bar with a slightly lower top on the Daily High Low Charts. On
the Weekly note, the NIFTY has ended flat with negligible gains of just 7
points or 0.15%.
The week that went by remained a week of consolidation and
so will be the coming week, at least as it appears from the technical charts.
The Markets are expected to open today on a moderately negative note and
continue to consolidate and trade in a range. A range bound Markets may be seen
with the level of 100-DMA acting as a immediate resistance and a top.
For today, the levels of 5200 and 5225 shall act as
immediate resistance on the Charts and the levels of 51105 and 5080 are
immediate supports. Thus, the Markets are still within the broad range 5060-5200
and trades near the upper limits of the range.
The RSI on the Daily Charts is 58.5213 and is neutral as it
shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD is bullish as it
trades above its signal line. On the Candles, three white candles occurred in
last three days. Although not big enough to create three white soldiers,
the steady upward pattern is bullish. On
the Weekly Charts, the RSI is 51.0175 and it is also neutral as shows no
negative / positive divergence or any failure swings. The MACD trades below its
signal line.
Trying to make sense out of these neutral indicators and
consolidating markets, it can be fairly concluded that the Markets shall
continue to consolidate and will see a range bound trade, but with the range
being larger as mentioned above. However, it would also be governed by the
external news flow at both domestic and international levels.
Also important to note that the way markets have no
immediate triggers to move up, it does not have any triggers to come down either.
So a slightest tinge of a positive news flow, it is likely to test the upper
range of the broad trading range defined earlier.
All and all, some consolidation days ahead, along with
rollover dominated activity since we enter into the expiry week. Any profit
taking bouts should be utilized to make selective purchases and shorts should
be strictly avoided as the undercurrent remains intact. Overall, positive
outlook is advised for today.
Milan
Vaishnav,
Consulting
Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
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