Monday, June 18, 2012

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, June 18, 2012

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY                                                               June 18, 2012
After a positive opening and a range bound trade in the morning session, the Markets had a buoyant session as it ended the day with decent gains. The Markets opened on a positive note and traded with capped gains in the morning session. However, after that, it transformed itself into rising upward moving trajectory and remained so for the entire session. It went to give the day’s high of 5146.20 towards the end of the session. It finally ended the day at 5139.05, posting a decent gain of 84.30 or 1.67%. It has formed slightly higher top and bottom on the Daily High Low Charts and the volumes remained moderately above average. With this, the Markets have ended the week with net gains of 70.70 points or 1.42%.

Today’s session remain highly important for the Markets as the Markets will deals with contradictory technical signals and the positive news flows. It is also set to react to the Monetary Policy that RBI is set to announce later today.

The Markets are set for a positive and buoyant opening today following positive news flow from Eurozone. At the same time, the opening will cause the Markets to open around its 50-DMA and the behavior of the Markets stands critical around those levels. Further, with the RBI policy due today, the Markets shall also react to that and thus given the technical chances of some weakness creeping in later today, the session remain critically important. The levels of 5200-5220 shall act as immediate resistance today.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 60.2573  and it shows no failure swing. However, the NIFTY has reached its highest value in last 14-days whereas RSI has not and this is BEARISH DIVERGENCE. The Daily MACD continue to trade above its signal line. On the Weekly Chart, the RSI stands neutral at 50.7644. Weekly MACD trades below its signal line. 

Having said this, if we look purely at the technical charts, not counting any other external positive news flow, then the Markets has theoretical chances of weakening a bit as the day progresses and some minor profit booking may be seen. However, we will see positive Europe opening likely to aid this and possible the Markets may react to the RBI Announcements before that.  There are chances that the Markets reacts after RBI Announcements but in that case, we will have more technicals reasons for that. So, with this largely contradictory reading, the volatility is something that will remain ingrained in the Markets today.

All and all, given this reading, it is thoroughly advised to remain extremely cautious for today.  The Markets shall remain volatile and aggressive position should be avoided and highly selective approach should be taken. Profits should be protected at higher levels. The undercurrent, however remains intact but profit taking bouts cannot be ruled out. Cautious optimism is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331


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