Thursday, May 3, 2012

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Thursday, May 03, 2012

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY                                                                May 3, 2012
The Markets had a relatively dull session yesterday as it consolidated on Close Charts by ended the day with negligible losses after paring its opening gains. The Markets opened on a positive note and traded positive in the initial trade as it formed its day’s high of 5279.60 in the morning trade. It formed a negative trajectory thereafter as it slowly pared its gains as the session progressed. However, it traded completely flat until the last half hour of the trade. It dipped into the red in the end but recovered a bit from there again to finally end the day at 5239.15, posting a very negligible loss of 9 points or 0.17%. The volumes remained relatively lower on account of consolidation and it formed a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Today’s analysis would remain more or less similar to that of yesterday as the Markets lacks any major triggers, technicals remain unchanged and the Markets continue to consolidate showing no directional bias on any side. Therefore, one would have to rely on overall pattern analysis as the Markets are likely to continue to consolidate. Expect the Markets to open on a flat to moderately negative note and look for directions and the intraday trajectory would continue to remain important.

The levels of 5270 and 5325 shall act as immediate resistance levels and the levels of 5190 and 5150 shall act as supports on the Charts.

RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 48.6744 and it shows no negative divergence or failure swing and it is therefore, neutral. The Daily MACD continues to trade below its signal line.

The NIFTY Futures have shed a very nominal 1.20 lakh shares in Open Interest and the Stock Futures have added over 2.3 crore shares in Open Interest, indicating no directional bias, especially on the downside. The NIFTY PCR stands at 1.10 against 1.12.

Overall, with no directional bias seen, the Markets have limited downside but overall is likely to remain range bound and volatile with overall very capped movement at Close levels. It is continued to be advised to avoid aggressive positions and also refrain from shorts as there is no structural breach on the Charts. The NIFTY remains above the falling trend line shown in the Charts and with very low levels of overall open positions, the bias remains towards upside.

All and all, very selective and stock specific approach should be continued and profits be very vigilantly protected on the upside. A selective approach with positive bias is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331


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