Monday, October 3, 2011

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, October 03, 2011 (Published in the morning before the Markets opened)

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

The Markets had a disappointing session on Friday, wherein it consolidated in the first half of the session and even traded briefly in the green, but pared all of its recovery in the second half as it ended the day losing 72.20 points. However, the Markets did so on lower volumes and in the process formed a lower top but higher  bottom on the Daily High Low Charts. With this, the Markets have ended the week with net gain of 75.50 points or 1.60%.

For today, expect the Markets to open on a negative note and look for directions and today's movement / trend would depend very much on the intraday trajectory that the Markets form post opening. Today, the Markets are likely to remained weighed down by global factors more than the domestic factors in the initial session.

However, at this point, it is important to note that the Markets have ended the Week with gains and it is trading in a broad trading range, and thus it is very much showing resilience to the global developments.

For today, with the Markets expected to open on a negative note, the levels of 4905 and 4860 are again likely to act as supports.

All lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI--Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 45.4604 and it is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD too remains bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the Weekly Charts, the RSI is 38.7739 and it shows no negative divergence or failure swings and it continues to remain neutral.

The NIFTY Futures have added 2.5% in Open Interst and this shows the Markets have again added short positions in the system as it also trades at discount.

Given all these reading, it can be fairly concluded that the Markets have offlate been behaving in defiance of technical indicators and it often happens when it gets affected with external factors. It also continues to trade in a broad range.

All and all, it is continued to be advised to refrain from shorting as the Markets have been directionless and in a broad range. Given the short positions, it is also likely that the Markets see some improvement post opening in the second half of the session. Stock specific activity may be observed. While avoiding shorts, and maintaining liquidity, cautious outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-9825016331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

1 comment:

  1. Very concise, precise and to the point....

    ReplyDelete

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