Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services

Friday, December 1, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, DEC 01, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, DEC 01, 2017

In our previous note, we had mentioned above confirmation of the levels of 10410 becoming a temporary lower top for the Markets. Thursday’s expiry session saw the volatility on expected lines but the session remained weaker than expected. The benchmark NIFTY50 ended the day losing 134.75 points or 1.30% after failing to sustain a feeble attempt to recovery. While we step in to the December Series, Thursday’s session was technically significant. We may see a flat to mildly positive start on Friday but that thing aside, the levels of 10410 has been confirmed as a lower top for the Markets after 10490.

Friday’s trade may see the levels of 10180 and 10150 playing out as immediate supports for the Markets. Upsides may find resistance at 10250 and 10310 zones.

The Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 44.9564 and remains neutral while showing no divergence to the price. The Daily MACD has reported a negative crossover and it is now bearish while trading once again below its signal line. A Big Black Candle that emerged today reaffirmed the credibility of the resistance levels and further it is also accompanied with a “Falling Window” formation. This results after a weak / black candle which emerges with a gap on the downside and this also usually results into continuation of a weak trend.

The pattern analysis confirms the levels of 10410 as a lower top for the Markets after the levels of 10490 as evident from the Chart.

Overall, there are chances that the Friday’s session may see some attempts of a technical pullback but it would be extremely critical to see if the Markets sustain such attempted pullback, if any. The immediate supports exist in the 10180-10200 zones which is a important pattern supports that also coincides with the 50-DMA for the Markets. The current structure of the Charts has most likely pushed our Markets into prolonged time frame of consolidation. We recommend remaining light on overall exposures and maintain a cautious view on the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Technical Analyst

(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member:

CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA

Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA

Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK

www.EquityResearch.asia

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277 / +91-98250-16331

milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Thursday, November 30, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, NOV 30, 2017

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, NOV 30, 2017

Very much on the expected lines, the Indian Markets spent the Wednesday’s session in a much defined range while the benchmark NIFTY50 ended the day with a net loss of 8.95 points or 0.09%. We enter the expiry day on Thursday and we will see the session continuing to remain heavily dominated with roller centric activities. Important thing to note that the Index has struggled for several days in the 10365-10410 zones and have not sustained those levels. In all probability, until the level of 10410 is breached on the upside, this level of 10410 will now act as an intermediate top and a important resistance.

The levels of 10410 and 10445 will play out as important resistance levels for Thursday. Supports come in much lower at 10305 and 10250.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 57.4833 and it stays neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Daily MACD is bullish as it trades above its signal line but may report a negative crossover again in event of some weakness. Spinning Tops continued to recur on Candles which emphasizes indecisiveness on part of participants.

The Pattern Analysis does not paint a pretty picture. With the Index resisting to the levels of 10410 and failing to clear it comprehensively marks it as a potential intermediate short term top. On the other hand, the RSI, which is a lead indicator to has formed a lower top and is seen inching downwards.

Overall, it is fairly clear from the technical structure of the Chart and the lead indicators that the upsides in the Markets will continue to remain vulnerable to profit taking bouts. We recommend remaining much light on the overall exposure and keep it moderate. Profits should be protected very vigilantly at higher levels. There are chances that the session may remain volatile owing to expiry of the current derivative series. It is advised to continue maintaining a cautious view on the Markets as the upsides may remain capped unless the 10410 is breached on the upside. Out-performance is likely to remain limited to certain select pockets.