Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, August 10, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                                     August 10, 2015

The Markets continued to oscillate in purposeless manner as it continued to consolidate and ended the day with modest losses. The Markets saw a better and resilient opening as it opened on just a minor negative note. Post opening modestly negative, the Markets traded in a narrow range in the morning. It slipped bit more into negative in the late morning trade but recovered to trade flat again. The Markets moved much in sideways trajectory in a very narrow range until late afternoon. It was in the last hour and half of trade the Markets saw some sudden paring of gains. Very minor recovery was seen but the Markets got somewhat weaker as it formed the day’s low of 8552.70. Some minor recovery was witnessed again and the Markets finally ended the day at 8564.60, posting a modest loss of 24.05 points or 0.28% while forming a slightly lower top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR MONDAY, AUGUST 10, 2015

The Markets remained in consolidation more throughout the previous week and today as well, it is likely to open on a modestly lower note and look for directions. As evident from the Daily Charts, the Markets have been continuously resisting to the upward rising trend line which it breached on the downside. Beginning today, and going ahead this week as well, we are likely to see the Markets continuing to resist this zone.

For today, the levels of 8600 and 8640 will act as immediate resistance levels. The supports come in at 8510 and 8460 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 56.7149 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it trades above its signal line. On the Weekly Charts, the Weekly RSI is 54.5665 and this too continues to remain neutral without showing any bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Weekly MACD is bullish as it trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY August futures have shed over 56,625 shares or nominal 0.32% in open interest. This figure is not much significant so as to suggest any major potential change in directional bias. The NIFTY PCR stands unchanged at 0.99.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have continued to resist to the upward rising trend line drawn from 8000-levels. The Markets have resisted to this trend line all through out the week and today and going ahead in this week as well, it is expected to continue to resist the same. On the Weekly Charts as well, the Markets are under similar formation and have been resisting a rising trend line of a channel. The immediate support this week exists at 50-DMA of the Week at 8385. Until the Markets show a major directional shift, it will continue to oscillate in a broad range of 8385-8650 levels.

Overall, the Markets are likely to see some mildly negative opening but it has also continued to display good amount of resilience and inherent strength. Even if it oscillates within a broad range, there will be no structural breach on the Charts. Any downsides should be utilized to make fresh purchases but such purchases should be kept limited and very selective while maintaining adequate liquidity as well.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

Consultant to:
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Friday, August 07, 2015

MARKET REPORT                                                                              August 07, 2015

The Markets traded on dotted lines once again as it not only remained volatile but continued to consolidate as well while ending the day with minor gains. The Markets began on a flat note and remained in capped and narrow range while slipping in and out of the negative territory in the morning trade. By the first half of the session, the Markets encountered some minor weakness as it gently slipped into the negative territory while forming the day’s low at 8551.50. It was in the second half of the session that the Markets saw some strength coming in as it saw a sharp up move and traded positive. It went on to gain further strength as it formed day’s high at 8606.30 in late afternoon trade. Markets came off a bit from those levels and spent the final hour of the trade trading in sideways trajectory. The Markets finally ended the day at 8588.65, posting a minor gain of 20.70 points or 0.24T while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR FRIDAY, AUGUST 07, 2015

Today’s analysis continues to remain once again more or less on similar lines that of yesterday. The Markets are likely to open again on modestly negative note and look for directions. The Markets are likely to once again continue to consolidate on broad lines but the under currents in  the Markets are seen getting buoyant as suggested by F&O data and lead indicators. However, until the consolidation continues, the Markets will continue to trade with some amount of volatility ingrained in it.

For today, the levels of 8610 and 8650 will act as immediate resistance levels. The supports come in bit lower at 8550 and 8510 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 57.7128 and it continues to remain neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD has reported a positive crossover and it now trades above its signal line and is bullish.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY August series has added further over 2.28 lakh shares or 1.37% in Open Interest. This signifies that there has been no offloading of long positions and also some moderate buying has been seen. In any case, this is not a weakening indicator / figure.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets have continued to resist to the rising trend line drawn from 8000-levels. As mentioned often in our previous editions of Daily Market Trend Guide, this lines is now a resistance for the Markets. It was a support which the Markets breached on the downside. For the Markets to resume it’s up move, it will have to move past this rising resistance line with volumes and conviction and stay above that. Until that happens, the Markets will continue to consolidate in a broad trading range.

Overall, the Markets may open weak but it is likely to consolidate and even see some improvement as day progresses. However, so long as it continues to trade below its resistance, it would remain susceptible to profit taking bouts from higher levels. However, lead indicators and F&O data suggest some buoyancy building up inherently. Overall, any dips can be continued to be utilized for making fresh purchases.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst

Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

Consultant to:
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com