Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services

Monday, April 6, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, April 06, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide April 06, 2015

MARKET REPORT
The Markets ended the session on Wednesday on a buoyant note after a flat opening and closed with decent gains. The Markets saw a relatively quiet opening and thereafter drifted modestly in the negative territory while forming the day’s low of 8464.75 in the morning trade. The Markets saw itself trading in a very narrow and capped range with no major losses in the first half of the session. The second half of the session saw some strength coming in as the Markets crawled into the positive territory. After some range bound trade, the Markets surged ahead and rose nearly 135-odd points rise from the low part of the day. It went on to form the day’s high of 8603.40, moving past its 100-DMA in the process. These levels were sustained and the Markets finally ended the day at 8586.25, posting a decent gain of 95.25 points or 1.12% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF NIFTY AND MARKET TREND FORECAST FOR MONDAY 06 APRIL, 2015

The Markets shall open today after a long slumber as Thursday and Friday in the previous weeks were holidays. Expect the Markets to open on a quiet note and trade without any directional bias in the initial trade. However, the Markets have attempted to find their bottom after posting lows of 8269.15 on March 27^th and have since risen above its 100-DMA as well while recovering from lows. Today, we might see it consolidating with the levels of 100-DMA acting as support.

For today, the levels of 8645-60 and 8720 will act as immediate resistance. The supports would come in at 8535 and 8490 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 48.0610 and it remains neutral while showing no bullish or bearish divergence. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish trading below its signal line. However, it is moving towards reporting a positive crossover in coming days. On Weekly Charts, Weekly RSI is 54.9090 and this too remains neutral showing bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swing. The Weekly MACD remains bearish trading below its signal line.

On the derivative front, NIFTY April Futures have shed over 5.43 lakh shares or 2.78% in Open Interest. The NIFTY PCR stands at 0.96 as against 0.86.

Coming to pattern analysis, the Markets showed a sharp correction in the previous week and before. However, at the same time, it also attempted to find its bottom and have recovered some 350-odd points from the lows it posted on March 27^th. In the process, it has also moved past their 100-DMA level which is now suppose to act as its support. The Markets are likely to consolidate before it gathers further directional bias and confirms the reversal. The impending RBI Policy review will weigh in some caution and would also provide a trigger to the Markets in the immediate short term.

Taking cues from Weekly Charts as well along with Daily Chart, it should not be surprising to see the Markets consolidating again in the immediate short term. However, the Markets have certainly attempted to find the bottom and while remaining in the consolidation phase again, the overall bias would certainly remain on the upside. The 100-DMA level which the Markets moved past is expected to act as support in the immediate short term. Overall, cautious optimism is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Sunday, April 5, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Daily Market Trend Guide Wednesday, 01 April 2015

MARKET REPORT March 31 2015

The Technical Analysis given above read along with the analysis of Derivatives data advises utmost caution at the higher levels . It is strongly advised against getting carried away with the rise as it is expected to counter technical resistance as given above and also the fact that the rally is more due to short covering than pure buying. – Daily Market Trend Guide March 31 2015

On the last trading day of the Financial year, the markets opened on a firm note as expected. The strength in the markets continued for most part of the trading session and the market traded in a positive trajectory post noon. Just few points above its 100 DMA, the market faced sudden and stiff resistance and registered sharp decline, never to recover til close. The Nifty closed the day at 8491 almost at the previous closing , and Sensex registered a marginal decline of 10 points at 27957.

As expected, the markets faced stiff resistance around its 100 Day Moving Average of 8533 as of yesterday. Against this foretold resistance , the market gave intraday high of 8550 and thereafter it registered sharp decline as a result of sudden offloading of position. As expected, shortened week also added to the sharpness of intraday decline.

However, on year on year basis, the Markets have performed splendidly . During FY 2014-15, Sensex has gone up by 5,571.22 points, or 24.88 % Nifty Nifty zoomed by 1,786.80 points, or 26.65 per cent. The Markets registered best ever performance since 2009-10 by registering gains of 25 %

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF NIFTY AND MARKET TREND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 01, 2015

All is well that ends well ! The financial year ended with very good performance of markets on year to year basis. Lets see what is in store for markets today- on the first trading day of the new financial year .

Technical Analysis of Daily High Low chart of Nifty reveals that the markets did try to get into the trading range beginning from 8513 levels, but its efforts was short lived as it faces very severe expected resistance from its 100 Day Simple Moving Average. Pattern analysis indicated that the markets are still not entered into safe trading range, as both its intraday low and close are below the lower level of this trading range. This leaves a technical possibility of weakness developing in the markets if it fails to move and remain above 8513.

Since markets closed lower than its open levels, a Black Body has occurred on the Candlestick charts. MACD still continues to trade below its signal line which it has crossed sixteen trading session ago, which implies weakness. However, since last two trading days, the MACD and taken an upward turn which indicates possibility of MACD getting above its signal line and generating a buy signal in coming days. But as of now it is in bearish zone. Analysis of 10 day RSI which is at 41.7005 as of today gives no significant technical indication. For today and start of the next week, the Pattern Analysis and moving averages will play important role in deciding the immediate trend of the market.

On derivatives front, Nifty and a few gainer stocks continue to shed open interest with decline in the markets, indicating reduction of position ahead of long weekend.

Today markets are poised for a flat to slightly weak opening. At open and during the day, watch the all important Lower Trend Line of Patterns with level 8513 and the 100 DMA of Nifty which is 8564.89 as of today. Utmost caution and alertness is advised at higher levels for today.

Wishing you a very successful New Financial Year ahead !