MARKET REPORT
September 27, 2013
The Markets had an absolutely flat session yesterday on the
expiry day as it saw one of the narrowest and flat sessions, especially given
the expiry of the series. The Markets opened on a flat note and after briefly trading
in the positive, dipped into the red to give the day’s low of 5864.10. The
Markets crawled back into the green after this but spent the major part of the
session in 20-odd point range until late afternoon trade. The Markets saw a
sudden spurt in the late afternoon trade as it went on to give the day’s high
of 5917.65. However, it thoroughly failed to sustain these levels as it pared
all of those gains to trade absolutely flat. It finally ended the day at
5882.25, posting a minor gain of 8.40 points or 0.14% while forming a slightly
higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
As evident from the
Charts, the Markets have been severely consolidating and therefore, today as
well, like past two days, the analysis remains more or less on similar lines. Expect
a flat opening in the Markets and the way it has been doing, it will need to
keep its head above the levels of 200-DMA which is 5841.50 in order to avoid
weakness. The intraday trajectory and the behaviour of Markets vis-à-vis this
level would continue to remain crucially important.
The levels of 5920 and 5965 are immediate resistance levels
for the Markets. The supports exist at 5841.50 in form of 200-DMA and 5816 in
form of 100-DMA. Any breach below these levels is likely to bring in further weakness
in the Markets.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is
55.9687 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any
kind of failure swings. The Daily MACD remains bullish as it continue to trade
above its signal line but as mentioned yesterday, it is moving towards
reporting a negative crossover. On the Candles, A Spinning Top has
occurred. If this happens during a up move, it suggests possibility of the momentum
slowing down and indicates a potential mild correction.
On the derivative front, average rollovers were seen in
Market wide and NIFTY segments. Minor open interest was reduced while the
Markets remained absolutely flat yesterday.
Given the pattern analysis and the F&O data, as
mentioned earlier, the Markets have remained severely in consolidation phase
and therefore the analysis too remains in similar lines. The Markets have
managed to keep its head above the levels of 200-DMA and it will be important
that it trades above 200-DMA in order to
avoid any weakness creeping in. Any breach below this level will mean further
weakness for the Markets.
All and all, given this, since the Markets have not breached
any significant levels as of now, shorts should be strictly avoided and fresh
purchases maybe made on a very selective basis. Sectoral out performance would
continue. Since the directional consensus has been missing it is advised to
take aggressive positions on either side and keep protecting profits wherever possible.
Overall, cautious outlook is continued for today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
