Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services

Thursday, April 12, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY,APR 12, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY,APR 12, 2018

While continuing its uptick for the fifth day in a raw, the Indian Equity Markets ended yet another day with NIFTY seeing minor gains of 14.90 points or 0.14%. Markets have exhibited extremely positive underlying intent as it recovered from the low point of the day. However, they have continued to resist to the 50-DMA and 100-DMA values which remain in extremely close vicinity of each other.

As we approach the Thursday’s trade and despite the fact that there is very evident positive undercurrent, we still feel there is a need to approach the Markets with caution. The 50-DMA and 100-DMA levels which stand at 10425 and 10440 respectively will continue to resist the Markets at Close levels.

The levels of 10440 and 10495 will act as immediate resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 10380 and 10320 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 56.4564 and it has marked a yet another 14-period high which is bullish. It continues to remain neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Daily MACD remains bullish while it trades above its signal line. On the Candles, a hanging man occurred. With such formation occurring during an up move, it raises some caution at current levels. It has a potential to temporarily stall the up move.

While having a look at pattern analysis, though the Markets continue to remain comfortably in the primary up move, it facing short term resistance as well. The levels of 50-DMA and 100-DMA which remain in very close vicinity of each other are likely to cause short term resistance area for the Markets.

Overall, the Markets have continued to exhibit a strong undercurrent. It has continued to add Open Interest with each minor up move. However it also faces as major pattern resistance at 50-DMA and 100-DMA. Though we may not see any significant downsides but the Markets certainly remain prone to volatile profit taking bouts from higher levels. We continue to advise protecting profits at higher levels. There are higher chances that even if the Markets continue with its up move, it might face some range bound consolidation at higher levels. Positive caution is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member:
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277 / +91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY,APR 11, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY,APR 11, 2018

The Indian Markets had an yet another quiet session as the benchmark index NIFTY opened positive, remained in a capped range and ended the day with a modest gain of 22.90 points or 0.22%. The volatility remained absent except or some small movements and the session remained much more stable than expected.

As we enter Wednesday’s trade, we expect some consolidation happening and the Markets taking some breather. We are very short distance away from the 50-DMA and the 100-DMA levels which remain in the very close vicinity and we expect the Markets to take some breather at these levels. Both 50-DMA and 100-DMA stand at 10438.

Wednesday will see the levels of 10440 and 10520 levels acting as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. Supports come in lower at 10365 and 10310 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 55.7665 and it has made yet another 14-period high which is bullish. No divergence on RSI is seen against the price. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish while trading above its signal line.

If we look at pattern analysis, NIFTY has evidently broken out from a short term falling trend. It continues to remain in the 27-month long upward rising channel and the primary up trend remains intact. On the immediate short term, the NIFTY is expected to encounter resistance at the 50-DMA and the 100-DMA on the Daily Charts.

Overall, we may once again see the Markets getting a relatively stable opening and a modestly positive start. However, the Markets in general may encounter resistance at 50-DMA and 100-DMA which converge at the same level of 10438. There are chances that the NIFTY attempts to move past these levels and at the same time, faces some resistance at higher levels as well. We see some inevitable consolidation happening and this may occur in a capped range and bring some volatility as well. We recommend protecting profits at higher levels and also make select purchases with each period of consolidation that the Markets offer.

STOCKS TO WATCH:

Relatively buoyant technical set up is seen on counters like IDBI BANK, BHARTI AIRTEL, MONNET ISPAT, HDFC STANDARD LIFE, GRAPHITE INDIA, BAJAJ ELECTRICALS, RAMCO CEMENT, JUBILIENT LIFE and HEG LTD.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)