Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services

Friday, March 16, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, MAR 16, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, MAR 16, 2018

The session on Thursday turned out to be much on expected lines as the NIFTY headed nowhere for the major part of the trade while remaining in much capped range. However, end of the session remained little sluggish than expected as the NIFTY ended the day with net loss of 50.75 points or 0.49% while adding fresh short positions.

Overall, we will continue to see the Markets continuing to consolidate and spend some more time remaining subdued before it prepare itself to move past 100-DMA levels. We are expected to see quiet to mildly positive start to the trade on Friday. However, NIFTY is neither expected to move past 100-DMA nor it is likely to breach any major support area.

Friday will see the levels of 10395 and 10475 playing out as immediate resistance levels. Supports come in at 10345 and 10275 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 44.8813 and it continues to remain neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Daily MACD stays bullish as it continues to trade above its signal line. No significant formations were observed on Candles.

Pattern analysis reveals the credibility of the resistance area of 100-DMA as the NIFTY has resisted at those levels. Also it shows and has established the support zone of the 10275-mark followed by the 200-DMA of the Markets. Presently it continues to trade in a rectangle formation which translates into a broad trading range.

All and all, it is all likely that the NIFTY continues to oscillate and consolidate a bit more before it prepares for a fresh up move. In this process, the support of 10275-mark will be critical area to watch for. The F&O data which continues to show addition of shorts reiterates the limited downsides for NIFTY. Also, taking into account the performance of the broader indices and sector indices, it is evident that the Markets continue to exhibit positive bias. We reiterate avoiding shorts in the present scenario. Minor downsides cannot be ruled out but overall, this will be nothing more than some more consolidation which is ultimately likely to resolve itself with a directional bias on the upside.

STOCKS TO WATCH:

Fresh long positions were seen being added in stocks like IDFC BANK, COAL INDIA, RECLTD, DLF, ICICI BANK, L&TFH, ARVIND, NATIONAL ALUMINIUM, ASIAN PAINTS, EQUITAS, RPOWER and INFRATEL.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)

Member:
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91- 70164-32277 / +91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Thursday, March 15, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, MAR 15, 2018

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, MAR 15, 2018

Wednesday’s session remained a day for severe consolidation for the Markets. The Markets saw a negative opening, dipped lower in the first half of the session and then recovered over 75-points from the low point of the day. The NIFTY still ended the day with minor loss of 15.95 points or 0.15%. NIFTY continued to consolidate near its 100-DMA and has also deliberated there and halted its pullback on expected lines. Currently, it remains in a trading zone without any directional bias and it is likely to remain this way for some more time.

As we approach Thursday’s trade, the way the NIFTY is unlikely to breach its pattern low of 10275-mark, it is also unlikely to give a runway up move. In all likelihood, it may continue to consolidate before it prepares to move past the 100-DMA which rests at 10458.

The levels of 10450 and 10485 will act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. Supports come in at 10365 and 10320 zones.

The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 47.4862. This indicator remains neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Daily MACD stays bullish as it trades above its signal line. A long lower shadow occurred on Candles. However, in the present context and looking at the place it occurred, it remains insignificant to draw any conclusions for it.

The pattern analysis continues to show NIFTY in the trading range. This range is formed with the lower range support of 10275 and upper range extending itself 10600 with the levels of 100-DMA lying exactly in between.

Overall, it is beyond doubt that the NIFTY tested its 100-DMA and showed minor corrective tendencies after that. However, it clearly continues to exhibit the underlying positive bias. Also, the broader Market Indices have continued to show resilience while the sectors chose to consolidate. We expect such range bound consolidation to continue. However, we also expected that despite some amount of volatility and some continued consolidation, there are greater chances of NIFTY moving past the 100-DMA mark at close in short time. We continue to reiterate a cautious but positive outlook in the Markets for the immediate short term.