MARKET REPORT February
17, 2016
Quite on expected lines, the Markets
displayed its vulnerability of being sold off
from anywhere above 7200 levels as it lost good amount of ground to end
the day yet again with losses. The Markets opened on a modestly positive note
and formed its intraday high of 7204.65 in the early morning trade. However,
the Markets pared all of its opening gains in the first hour and half of trade
and drifted in the negative. After trading with negative, but limited losses in
the first half of the session, the Markets came under amplified pressure
especially in the second half of the trade. It lost ground quite rapidly and
went on to form the day’s low of 7037.70, paring nearly 170-odd points from the
high point of the day. It finally ended the day at 7048.25, posting a net loss
of 114.70 points or 1.60% while forming a slightly higher top but lower bottom
on the Daily Bar Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY
17, 2016
The Markets have decoupled since yesterday
with the Global Markets and have shown downsides despite global stability.
However, today, we can once again expect a stable start to the Markets. The
Markets are likely to see a modestly decent opening but the levels of 7240 are
likely to continue to remain a immediate resistance for the Markets in the
immediate short term. At the same time, the Markets are also less likely to
retest or breach its low of 6869.
For today, the levels of 7085 and 7130 are
likely to act as immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports come
in at 7030 and 6965 levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the
Daily Chart is 35.4977 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish
divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD stays bearish as it trades below
its signal line.
On the derivative front, the NIFTY February
futures have once again added over 7.62 lakh shares or 3.73% in Open Interest.
This shows addition of fresh shorts into the system. The NIFTY PCR stands at
0.78 as against 0.80.
While having a look at pattern analysis,
the Markets resisted and declined from 7200-7240 range. These levels are likely
to act as resistance as it was the last immediate support that it breached on the
downside. The Markets are expected to
oscillate in a broad range with the
levels of 7200-7240 acting as immediate resistance. The lower range can be
little broad as well with the levels of 6870. The previous low of the Markets
are not likely to be breached. For the Markets to form and establish 6869-70 as
immediate bottom, it will have to move past 7240 and trade above those levels.
Until the Markets move past these levels, it will not be forming a confirmed
bottom and would continue to remain vulnerable as ever to selloffs from higher
levels.
All and all, though we can expect a
modestly positive start to the Markets, it would be important to take note of
the fact that the Markets are not yet out of the woods. It currently trades in
what is known “trading range” with either no directional bias or with mildly
bearish undertone. This structure of the Markets will remain until it moves
past 7240. It is advised to continue to refrain from excessive position and
adopt cautious outlook on the Markets.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com
+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com
Consulting Technical Analyst
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com
+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com
