MARKET REPORT August
11, 2015
The Markets continued to remain
haunted by consolidating activities as it resisted very near to the levels
mentioned in our yesterday’s edition of Daily Market Trend Guide and ended the
day with losses after a very volatile trade. The Markets saw a resilient
opening on a positive note and strengthened further in the morning trade to
form the day’s high of 8621.55. The Markets maintained these gains for the
major part of the session as it then traded in very capped and narrow range
while trending sideways. Just when it seemed that the Markets may retain the
psychologically important 8600-mark, it saw a near vertical correction in the
last hour of the trade. The Markets saw a vertical paring of gains and it came
off nearly 125-odd points from the high point of the day to form the day’s low
of 8497.80. Minor recovery was seen and the Markets finally ended the day at
8525.60, posting a net loss of 39 points or 0.46% while forming a higher top
but lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY,
AUGUST 11,, 2015
As very clearly evident from the
Daily Charts, the Markets are troubled by a classical pattern resistance drawn
from the lows of 8000-levels it formed in June. Today as well, we can expect
the Markets to open on a modestly positive note but continue to remain in the
consolidation zone for some more time. The Markets will grossly depend upon the
intraday trajectory that it forms post opening and would continue to resist to
the upward rising pattern resistance levels.
Today, the levels of 8575 and 8620
will act as immediate resistance levels. The supports come in at 8500 and 8440
levels.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on
the Daily Chart is 53.5338 and it remains neutral as it shows no bullish or
bearish divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD has reported a negative
crossover and is now bearish as it trades below its signal line.
On the derivative front, the NIFTY
August futures have shed over 2.48 lakh shares or 1.47% in Open Interest and
this signifies some shedding and unwinding of positions in the NIFTY.
Coming to pattern analysis, the
Markets have continued to vehemently resist to the rising trend line of the
channel drawn from 8000-levels it formed in June. Following this as we have
often mentioned in our previous editions of Daily Market Trend Guide that since
the trend line keeps rising, the levels required for the Markets to have a
upward breakout too keeps rising. This prevents the Markets from the clear
breakout and it continues to resist to the upward rising pattern resistance
even if it continues to post gains. Further to this, though the Markets have
three major supports on the downsides in form of all three moving averages, it
is forming a potential Head and Shoulder formation which is potentially
bearish. However, positive speaking, the volume tests required for this is
missing and the three major support levels should prevent it from happening.
Overall, the Markets are in a very
critical juncture and they are likely to continue to remain volatile and prone
to profit taking bouts just like yesterday. Given this scenario, it would also
see some good amount of volatility ingrained in it. More emphasis should be
laid on protecting profits than taking new positions. With no clear directional
bias as of now, cautious approach with enough liquidity should be maintained.
Milan
Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com
Consultant to:
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com
Consulting Technical Analyst
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, (ATMA), INDIA
www.EquityResearch.asia
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com
Consultant to:
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com
