MARKET REPORT February
05, 2015
Markets had a dull session for the most part of the day but volatility
refused to go away as the Markets ended the session with fourth straight day
with modest losses. The Markets saw positive opening and marked the levels of
8792.85 as the intraday high in the early trade. After trading briefly into the
positive territory the Markets slipped in the red, however, continued to trade
with modest losses. Most part of the session was spent in sideways trajectory
with the Markets moving in much capped range with limited movement on either
side. The second half of the Markets saw itself going back in the positive
territory but continued to trade with capped range as such. The final hour of
the trade saw volatility creeping in as the Markets saw a near vertical paring
of gains as not only it dipped in the negative zone but also marked the levels
of 8704.40 as its intraday low. It finally settled the day at 8723.70, posting
a net loss of 32.85 points or 0.38% while continuing to form a lower top and
lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 05, 2015
Markets are likely to remain in consolidation mode in the
immediate short term. With the opening expected on a quiet note, it is
important to note that post breaking out on the upside from 8640 levels, the
Markets have retraced over 73% of its gains. This makes it more likely to remain
in some consolidation / corrective mode for some more time in immediate short
term.
The levels of 8790 and 8840 will act as immediate resistance
for the Markets. The level of 8640 is likely to act as its immediate and
important support.
The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is
58.5275 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish.
Further, it has also formed a fresh 14-period low whereas NIFTY has not yet and
this is Bearish Divergence. The Daily MACD remains bullish trading above its
signal line but is moving towards reporting a bearish crossover.
On the derivative front, the NIFTY February futures have
shed over 1.15 lakh shares or 0.45% in Open Interest. Though this shedding is
nominal, but it is enough to suggest that no major shorts seem to have been
created in the system.
Coming to pattern analysis, as mentioned earlier, the
Markets have retraced and corrected over 73% of its gains from the levels of
8640, the levels which from which it gave an upward breakout. The Markets may
attempt to reverse from here but at the same time, even if it continues to
retrace and tests 8640 levels, it would be perfectly fine on the Daily Charts. Therefore, the levels of 8640
will be the important levels to watch out for in the immediate short term.
Overall, as of now,
the Markets are not showing an signs of a pullback and therefore we will
continue with our analysis on more or less the same lines. We continue to
reiterate to continue to maintain adequate liquidity and keep overall exposures
at moderate levels. While maintaining vigil on existing profits, continuance of
cautious approach is advised for the day.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
Af. Member: Market Technicians Association (MTA), USA
Af. Member: Association of Technical Market Analysts, INDIA
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
+91-98250-16331
