Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, September 17, 2014

MARKET REPORT September 16, 2014

The Markets traded precisely on expected lines as it saw a serious correction setting in and ended the day with deep slice. Following weak technicals, the Markets opened on a negative note and traded with capped losses in the first half of the trade. However, after the morning session, the Markets saw some selling pressure coming in. This pressure got intensified in the second half of the session as the Markets rapidly lost ground. It went on to form the day’s low of 7925.15 towards the end of the session. Such selling pressure persisted and the Markets showed no signs of recovery at all at any point of time. The Markets, while showing no signs of recovery, ended the day at 7932.90, with a deep cut of 109.10 points or 1.36% while forming a sharply lower top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2014

The failure of the breakout from the rising trend upper trend line has been completely validated. Technically speaking, the Markets are likely to open on a weaker note and have bright chances to continue with its downward trajectory. If such trend persists, there are chances that the its goes on to test the 50-dma levels.

The levels of 8040 and 8190 would act as immediate resistance whereas the levels of 7860 and 7815 would act as support.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 47.8778. Though it does not show any bullish or bearish divergence, it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish. The Daily MACD confirms it negative crossover and is bearish while it trades below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY September further have continued to shed 5.29 lakh shares or 3.93% in Open Interest. This makes one thing very evident that the decline in Markets is direct result of unwinding of positions and pure selling.

Going by the pattern analysis, it is very much evident that the broadening formation that we have been mentioned over last couple of occasion has persisted and the Markets have failed to break out of that. The attempt to breakout has proved to be a false signal or a whipsaw and the Markets are back inside that broadening formation with a negative bias.

All and all, we continue to reiterate to exercise caution in the Markets. Even if the Markets see a minor pullback, it is likely to remain very short lived as the bias certainly remains on the downside. Any further weakness would have the Markets test its 50-DMA levels. Even if the Markets consolidate a bit the chances of it continuing with the downward trend is likely for the immediate short term. Overall, caution is advised in the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Monday, September 15, 2014

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, September 16, 2014

MARKET REPORT September 15, 2014

The Markets corrected in today’s session, quite on expected lines on lines of weak IIP numbers that came in on Friday and on equally unfavourable technical indicators. The Markets saw a near gap down opening as it opened a notch lower but spent most of the session in a very narrow and capped range. The Markets did not drift much lower during the day but at the same time did not made any attempt to recover from lower levels as well. While continuing to trade sideways, it formed a day’s low of 8030 in the late afternoon trade. As mentioned, once again no major recovery from lower levels was seen and the Markets finally ended the day at 8042, posting a net loss of 63.50 points or 0.78% while forming a distinctly lower top and lower bottom on the Daily Bar Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2014

The Markets have conformed one thing as of now that the breakout it had attempted has not been validated and it has bought itself back into the broad channel that it has formed. Tomorrow, we can expect to see a mildly negative opening again. Technically speaking, the Markets should continue with its downward drift. However, even in case of any small pullback, it would continue within the broad channel and would continue to resist to the rising line.

The levels of 8100 and 8130 would act as immediate resistance and the levels of 7960 and 7910 would act as immediate supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 57.9557 and it has reached its lowest value in last 14-days which is bearish. Further, the RSI has formed a fresh 14-period low whereas NIFTY has not yet and this is clear bearish divergence. The Daily MACD has reported a negative crossover as precisely predicted in our previous editions and it now trades below its signal line which is bearish indication.

On the derivative front, NIFTY September futures have went on to shed yet another 2.43 lakh shares or 1.78% in Open Interest. This signifies that that there has been continuance of unwinding of positions or profit taking and no fresh shorts have been created.

Going back to pattern analysis, the Markets have failed to confirm a breakout. Its movement past the rising trend line of the broad channel has proved to be a false signal or a whipsaw and with today’s close, it is back again in the broadening channel. As of now, the levels of 8180 has become a immediate top for the Markets and no runaway rise would occur until the Markets moves past this level.

Overall, the advisory remains more or less on similar lines like that of yesterday. We continue to reiterate to refrain from making major purchases but to keep them very much selective in stock specific and non-index components. Though sectoral out performance would continue, it is best advised to keep overall leverage under control. Cautious outlook is advised for the day.