MARKET REPORT June
25, 2014
Despite adverse technicals, the Markets saw a sharp recovery
in yesterday’s session and ended the day with decent gains though volatility
continued to remain ingrained into the Markets. The Markets opened on a
positive note and saw stable trading in the first half of the session while it
decently maintained gains. The gains got some further strength in the afternoon
trade wherein the Markets went on to form the day’s high of 7593.35. However,
in the late afternoon trade, the Markets suddenly saw some paring of gains.
This coming off was little rapid as the NIFTY saw some paring of 60-odd points
in a flash. However, the Markets were able to recover again and finally ended
the day at 7580.20, posting a decent gain of 85.85 points or 1.16% while
forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
Today, we enter the penultimate day of the expiry of current
derivative series and the Markets would continue to remain dominated with
rollovers centric activity. The volatility will refuse to go away and shall remain
ingrained. Today, we can expect a flat opening for the Markets but as the
figures suggest, there are chances that we see some continuation of up move in
the initial trade and at the same point, we can also see some volatile swings
downward bias in the second half of the session.
For today, the levels of 7605 and 7660 would act as
immediate resistance. The supports exist at 7510 and 7460 levels.
The lead indicators continue to point towards mild negative
bias. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 62.7827 and it
remains neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any kind of
failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below
its signal line.
On the derivative front, heavy rollovers continued. The NIFTY
June futures shed over 21.87 lakh shares or 16.14% in Open Interest while the
July Series added 36.87 lakh shares or 89.55% in Open Interest.
Going by the pattern analysis, the Markets have held on to a
mild pattern support of 7510 levels. As evident from the Charts, the Markets
will have to move past the levels of 7700.05 for a fresh upward breakout and
until this happens, we will continue to see the Markets in a consolidation
state. However, this consolidation shall remain volatile as we have been seeing
as the trading range remains broad.
Overall, we continue to reiterate our cautious stand in the
Markets. We continue to reiterate to remain extremely stock specific with a bias towards defensives and also to
keep protecting profits at higher levels. While maintaining liquidity and very
moderate leverage, cautious outlook should be continued in the Markets today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
