Saturday, December 7, 2013

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, December 03, 2013

MARKET REPORT                                                                                 December 03, 2013
The Markets had a good session yesterday as it advanced itself for the third day in a row to end the day with decent gains. The Markets opened on a modestly positive note and the session remained more or less a range bound session. After opening modestly positive, the Markets advanced further in the morning trade as it gave its day’s high of 6228.80.  Post making this high, the Markets remained more or less again in sideways trajectory. It lost some ground as it came of its intraday highs a bit in the afternoon trade but recouped its earlier levels. It spent the most part of the session in some 25-odd points trajectory after making the day’s high and finally ended the day at 6217.85, posting a net gain of 41.75 points or 0.68% while continuing to form a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low charts.

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY

 Today, we can see a day of consolidation again but this consolidation is likely to be a positive one. The Markets may open on a modestly negative note but improve as we go ahead in the session. The opening levels are expected to be around its intraday support levels and we may see the Markets coming off its intraday lows as we go ahead, as indicated by lead indicators.

For today, the levels of 6245 and 6270 are immediate resistance levels for the Markets. The supports exist at 6190 and 6170 levels.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 57.9146 and it has reached its highest levels in last 14-days.This is bullish. It does not show any bullish or bearish divergence. We had mentioned in our yesterday’s edition of Daily Market Trend Guide that the Daily MACD is moving towards reporting a positive crossover. Today, it has reported a positive crossover and it is bullish as it now trades above its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY December futures have gone on to add yet another 2.98 lakh shares or 1.64% in Open Interest. This goes on to signify that further fresh longs have been added.

Going by the lead indicators and the F&O data, it is pretty clear that the Markets have some more steam left to move upwards. Even going by the pattern analysis, the patterns remain intact and the Markets continue to remain in the immediate up trend. Going by all this, even if we see a modestly negative opening, it would be nothing more but a range bound consolidation with a upward bias. There would be very high chances that we may see the Markets improving as we go ahead in the session.

All and all, as mentioned above, we might see a modestly negative opening but bias certainly remains on the upside. Given this reading, it is advised to strictly refrain from entering shorts and use any temporary limited downside to make selective purchases. Positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331


Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, December 02, 2013

MARKET REPORT                                                                December 02, 2013
The Markets continued to witness buoyancy on the beginning of new derivative series as it opened on a stronger note, strengthened further and remained in sideways trajectory by maintaining its gains and ending the day on a buoyant note with decent gains. The Markets opened stronger and soon went on to give its day’s high of 6182.50 in the early morning trade. Soon after that the Markets remained in sideways trajectory for the rest of the session as it fiercely maintained its gains. The Markets maintained that range and ended the day at 6176.10, posting a decent gain of 84.25 points or 1.38% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

MARKET TREND FOR TO DAY
Today, expect the Markets to open on a modestly positive to flat note and maintain its levels at least in the initial trade. The lead indicators and the technical indicators on the Daily Chart remain firmly in place and the Markets are likely to trade and consolidate with a positive bias.

Today, the levels of 6205 and 6230 are immediate resistance on the Daily Charts and the levels of 6145 and 6110 are immediate supports.

The lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 55.4546 and it is neutral as it shows no bullish or bearish divergence or any failure swings. The Daily MACD trades below its signal line but its moving towards giving a positive crossover on the Daily Charts. On the Weekly Charts, the RSI is 57.5727 and continues to remain neutral like on the Daily Charts. The Weekly MACD continues to remain bullish as it already trades above its signal line. 

On the derivative front, the NIFTY December futures have added over 8.71 lakh shares or 5.03% in open interest and this is certainly a positive sign as fresh additions of long positions is seen.

Going by the pattern analysis on the Daily as well as Weekly Charts, the trend remains neutral to bullish as the Markets continues to trade above all of its moving averages. Even with a short term rise and the consolidation that  might follow, it would continue to trade with a positive bias so long as maintains its levels above its 50-DMA.

All and all, the Markets continue to trade with positive bias. Even if it opens flat and consolidates, the bias would remain positive as all technical factors and lead indicators remain in place. This is further supported by pattern analysis and the F&O Data. Given this reading, even if the Markets consolidate it would be a range bound consolidation and any temporary downside should be used to make fresh purchases. While shorts should be strictly avoided, overall positive outlook is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331