Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, March 19, 2013

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY March 19, 2013

The Markets remained in corrective mode in line with global weakness but at the same time showed some resilience as expected as it did not dip below its opening lows much and ended the day with modest losses. The Markets started the day on a negative note following global weakness and opened with some minor gap down. However, post opening, it moved in a capped range and in the mid session gave its intraday low of 5814.35. However, the Markets did not break its opening capped range that it formed and in the second half of the session, saw some improvement as it came off its lows. It finally ended the day at 5835.25, posting a net loss of 37.35 points or 0.64% forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Today, some stability and positive trade may be expected, at least in the initial trade. The Markets may open on a flat to mildly positive note and look for direction. The global screed looks bit greener and on our Charts, the levels of 5800 is likely to act as support. Intraday trajectory would be crucial to dominate the trend today and at the same time, Markets are also likely to react to RBI Credit Policy announcements later today.

For today, the levels of 5862 and 5880 are likely to act as resistance and the levels of 5800 and 5780 are likely to act as immediate supports.

The lead indicators remain neutral to mildly bullish like yesterday. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 46.3233 and is neutral as it shows no failure swings or bullish or bearish divergences. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above it signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY March futures have added over 2.86 lakh shares or 1.92% in Open Interest. This signifies creation of some shorts in the system before the reaction of the Markets to RBI Credit Policy announcements.

The Markets shall remain volatile in the later part of the day as it would, as usual, give knee jerk reaction to the RBI Credit Policy announcement. Markets expected 25 bps cut in the Repo rate and expect CRR to remain unchanged.

All and all, after initial range bound trade, the Markets shall react to RBI Announcements. However, so long as it maintains levels above 5800 would not see any break in the attempt of its reversal after making bottom couple of weeks ago. However, if it dips below 5800, it may induce some temporary weakness. Overall, it is advised not to create aggressive positions until the directional trend for the day is clear. While profits should be protected everywhere, cautious optimism is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Monday, March 18, 2013

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, March 18, 2013

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY March 18, 2013

Markets remained in corrective mood on Friday as it opened on a stronger and positive note but gave way as the session progressed and ended the day with modest losses. The markets opened on a positive and stronger note and the Markets gave its intraday high of 5945.65 in the early minutes of the morning trade. After briefly trading into the green, the Markets pared its gains to trade flat. It went on to dip into the negative in the afternoon session and went on to give the day’s low of 5861. It made an feeble attempt to recover once and also came off its day’s lows but again saw some pressure building in and gave up towards the end. The Markets finally ended the day at 5872.60, posting a net loss of 36.65 points or 0.62% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Today, we are likely to see some weakness creeping in again, at least in the opening trade in line with the global weakness seen. The levels of 50-DMA has so far acted as a resistance at Close levels and is likely to continue to do so. However, as per pattern analysis, so long as the Markets continue to remain above 5800 levels, it would continue to remain in pullback and it would continue with its attempt of a reversal.

For today, the levels of 5800 is supposed to act as important support. Any dip below this would make the Markets and make the attempt of a reversal weaker.

The lead indicators remain neutral to mildly bullish. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart 49.6556 and it is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or any bearish or bullish divergence. The Daily MACD continues to remain bullish as it trades above its signal line. On the Weekly note, the RSI is neutral and the Weekly MACD is bearish as it still continues to trade below its signal line.

On the derivative front, the NIFTY March futures have shed nominal 69250 shares or 0.46% in Open Interest and therefore, no major offloading / unwinding of long positions have been seen / reported.

The Markets may open and remain initially weak but there is no breakdown on charts as yet. After making recent lows of 5663, the Markets have seen a pullback and it is in an attempt to report a trend reversal. This attempted is not likely to be dented by today’s weak opening, but at the same time, it would be important for the Markets to remain above 5800 levels so as to maintain a higher bottom that it has give and continue with its attempt of trend reversal.

All and all, the opening weakness is certain, but quantum would depend on how much we show resilience and how much the Markets are likely to improve as we go ahead in the session. Going as per technicals as of now, the weakness shall be short lived and any such weakness should be utilized in making selective purchases. However, cautious outlook is advised for today.