MARKET TREND FOR TODAY
December, 26, 2012
There was a directionless session on Monday, as such on
expected lines as the Markets opened positive and spent the entire session
doing nothing moving in a very capped narrow range and ended the day with very
minor gains. The Markets opened on a moderately positive note and gave its
intraday high of 5871.90 in the very early minutes of the trade. Thereafter,
the Markets formed a sideward trajectory and remained in such trajectory for
the entire session. It traded in a very capped and narrow range and finally
ended the day at 5855.75, posting a minor gain of 8.05 points or 0.14%, forming
a lower top and almost similar bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.
Today, expect the Markets to open on a flat to moderately
positive note again and look for directions. We enter the penultimate day of
expiry of current derivative series and the trade is expected to remain dominated
with rollover activities. Six major global
Markets are shut due to Christmas holidays and this will show in the
overall volume. Directionless and range bound movement cannot be ruled out in
the Markets today.
For today, the levels of 5900 and 5930 shall continue to act
as resistance for the Markets. The supports come in at 5830 and 5780 levels.
The lead indicators of the Markets continue to remain
neutral to mildly bearish. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart
is 54.5379 and it is neutral as it shows no failure swings or any bullish or
bearish divergence. The Daily MACD is bearish as it continues to trade below
its signal line.
On the Derivative front, NIFTY Futures show nominal addition
in Open Interest. This signifies that there has been no major addition of
longs, and also, there has been no significant offloading / unwinding of any
long positions. The NIFTY PCR stands at 1.05.
Having said this, it is important to note that due to year
end and Christmas holidays, the Markets will see only “statutory participation”
and due to this volumes will continue to remain impacted.
All and all, no major directional move is expected. We can
see further weakness if the Markets dips below 5815 levels. But any move, on
either side, may not sustain as it is likely to be without any significant
volumes and participation. It is advised to continue to remain light on
positions and at the same time, keep protecting profits vigilantly. Overall,
neutral outlook is advised for today.
Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
+91-98250-16331
