Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, November 27, 2012

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY November 27, 2012

The Markets spent yet another session consolidating and resisting to its critical levels as it ended the day yesterday with very minor gains. The Markets opened on a positive note and gave its intraday high of 5649.20 in the very early minutes of the trade. However, in the morning trade, it then kept losing ground gradually as it pared all of its gains until afternoon. The Markets saw some recover again in the second half of the trade, but again pared its gains by the end of the session. The Markets finally managed to end the day at 5635.90, posting a minor gain of 9.30 points or 0.17% while forming a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

For today, expect the Markets to see some positive strong opening on back of positive global cues. The key thing for the Markets would be to capitalize on the positive and strong opening and maintain a positive upward rising trajectory. The Markets would still remain in a broad trading range after expected positive opening.

The Markets have been resisting to the key levels of 5630 and the 50-DMA and these levels shall continue to remain the key resistance levels along with the 5700 levels. The supports would come in at 5630 and 5570 levels.

There are no directional triggers for the Markets on the up side. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 49.0562 and it is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD is bearish as it continues to trade below its signal line.

We are into expiry week of the current derivative series and we have a truncated week this time as tomorrow is a trading holiday on account of Gurunanak Jayanti.

Having said this, even with the positive opening around the expected levels on back of positive global cues, it would be critically important to see if the Markets are able to maintain those opening gains and capitalizes on this positive opening. It is also important to note that even this positive opening will cause the Markets to open around its critical resistance levels and is likely to find resistance there.

All and all, there are chances that the Markets gradually pares its gains as we go ahead in the session. There are also chances that we see good amount of volatility ingrained in the Markets today. It is advised to remain selective while taking fresh positions and keep protecting profits on either side. Overall cautious outlook is continued on the Markets.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Monday, November 26, 2012

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, November 26, 2012

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY November 26, 2012

The Markets on Friday ended the day on a flat note after it recovered from its day’s low continuing with its consolidation. The Markets opened on a flat to mildly positive note and gave its intraday high of 5637.75 in the early minutes of the trade. The Markets continued to trade in a very capped range in the morning trade but thereafter lost some ground as it continued to slip gradually. It not only dipped into the red, but went on to give the intraday low of 5593.55. However, in the last hour and half of trade, the Markets saw some recovery coming in form of short covering. It recovered from its lows and finally ended the day at 5626.60, posing a net loss of 1.15 points or 0.02% forming a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Today, we enter into the expiry week of the current series and the Market behaviour in coming days is all set to remain influenced with the rollover activities. For today, expect the Markets to open on a moderately positive to flat note and the behaviour of the Markets vis-à-vis the levels of 5630 would be critical. The Markets will have to remain above this levels to avoid any weakness creeping in.

For today, the levels of 5630 and 5675 shall act as immediate resistance levels and the levels of 5575 and 5530 are immediate supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Charts is 47.6575 and it is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to remain bearish as it trades below its signal line. On the Weekly Charts too, the RSI is neutral without showing any failure swings or bullish / bearish divergence. The Weekly MACD trades above its signal line.

Going by the above, the Markets do not have any specific directional triggers on the upside and thus, it is sure to remain influenced with the rollover activities. The NIFTY futures have shed over 6 lakh shares or 4.8% in Open Interest on Friday. This signifies that the rise that we saw towards the end of the session was more due to short covering and not due to any fresh buying.

Having said this, the opening levels of the Markets and the behaviour vis-à-vis the levels of 5630 would be important. It will have to comfortably sustain above this levels in order to avoid any weakness.

All and all, the intraday trajectory the Markets form would be important to decide the trend for today. Stock specific and rollover centric activity shall dominate the Markets. Overall structure and pattern analysis of the Markets show to directional triggers on the upside. While remaining highly stock specific and cautious, aggressive positions are not advised.