Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Wednesday, June 06, 2012

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY June 6, 2012

Volatility refused to go away as the Markets enjoyed a positive start but failed to sustain its opening gains as it ended the day with minor gains. The Markets opened on a positive note and gradually remained in rising trajectory as it gave its intraday high of 4898.95 in the afternoon trade. The volatility returned to the Markets as the Markets pared all of its gains and virtually traded flat. It however recovered a little to finally end the day at 4863.30, posting a minor gain of 15.15 points or 0.31%. The volumes remained little below average and the Markets formed a higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Expect the opening in the Markets today to be on a positive note and but the that would cause the Markets to open around yesterday’s high levels and thus it would be important for the Markets to remain in positive trajectory and maintain / capitalize on the opening gains.

The levels of 4895 and 4930 are immediate resistance on the Charts and the levels of 4830 and 4805 are immediate supports.

The lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 38.2228 and it is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to trade above its signal line and is therefore bullish.

Having said this, it is important to note that the Markets have so far held on to the potential bottom formation at 4788 levels of May 18^th and have attempted to rebound and take support at a double bottom formation couple of days back. So, the Markets have apparently taken support and have held on to the bottom, but at the same time have also not broken out of a range. The Markets have been trading in a broad range of 4788 on the lower level and 5020 on the upside. This broad range will have to be breached on the upside if this potential bottom formation is to be confirmed.

So, given this reading, and with the NIFTY and Stock futures both addition Open Interest and with the discount in NIFTY Futures widening a bit, it can be fairly assumed that so far this bottom is likely to be maintained, but at the same time, the Markets are likely to remain in a capped range and this shall keep the Markets volatile and intermittent bouts of profit taking cannot be ruled out.

Given this, it is advised to continue to maintain a strict vigil on the open positions and protection of profits at higher levels is advised. Purchases may be made but that should remain highly selective and stock specific. Overall, positive approach but with good amount of caution is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,

Consulting Technical Analyst,

www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in

http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com

+91-98250-16331

milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in

milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, June 05, 2012

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY June 5, 2012

Precisely on the expected lines, the Markets staged a smart recovery after weak opening and has so far held on to the bottoms made on May 18^th. The Markets opened on a weaker note and with a gap down on back of weak global cues and gave its intraday low of 4770.35 in the morning trade. However, it thereafter transformed into upward rising trajectory, though in a bit volatile manner and remain in that trajectory for the rest of the session. It not only recouped its morning losses but went on to trade in the positive too. Towards the end of the session, it gave intraday high of 4858.30, recovering almost 80-odd points from its day’s low and ended the day near the high point at 4848.15, posting a gain of 6.55 points or 0.14%. It continued to form a lower top and lower bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Expect the Markets to open on a flat t o moderately positive note today and look for directions and intraday trajectory would continue to remain critically important. The Markets have so far held on to the bottom formed on May 18^th and it would be important for the Markets to sustain above those levels at Close as the Markets are still not completely out of woods as of today.

The levels of 4875 and 4930 are immediate resistance on the Charts and the levels of 4790 and 4740 are immediate supports on the Charts.

All lead indicators continue to remain in place. The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 36.3132 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daly MACD continues to trade above its signal line.

At this juncture, it is important to note that the Markets are not completely out of woods as yet though it has held on the its previous bottom and has formed a minor Double Bottom supports on the Daily Charts. So, it would be important for the Markets that it maintains a positive trajectory post opening and remains above its critical support levels.

All and all, with no potential bottom formation confirmed and with the Markets struggling to keep the current support levels intact, the preservation of this Double Bottom support would be crucially important. It is advised to still avoid aggressive positions and keep protecting profits at higher levels. Overall, continuation of cautious approach is advised for today.